Giants vs Brewer’s Odds

The San Francisco Giants have followed up their surprising 2021 campaign with a scorching-hot 11-5 start to this season. They will send another promising young arm to the mound in Sam Long, who will go as an opener against the Brewers in a solo makeup game in Milwaukee from the lockout postponements.

The Brewers will send 2021 NL Cy Young Winner Corbin Burnes to the mound, hoping he can put together another dominant performance Monday after a strong start to the campaign.

Will the Giants be able to hang around pitching a bullpen game vs one of the league’s very best?

Giants’ offense looks legit

It’s early, but San Francisco has offered a lot of indications that its 2021 breakout season was no fluke. The offense has been sound and the pitching staff features a wealth of excellent arms.

The Giants crushed right-handed pitching last season, posting a fourth-best wRC+ of 110 with a .332 wOBA.

In 471 at-bats in 2022 they managed up similar results, with a 112 wRC+ and a .322 wOBA.

This order features a number of batters who are simply irritants to try to get out. The Giants have a chase rate of just 25% this season, and love to just hang around and make life tough.

Long will open the game for San Francisco, and appears unlikely to progress past six outs as he pitched in a similar role just Friday against Washington. Long has been very effective so far this season, allowing zero earned runs in 4 2.3 IP with an xERA of 2.41.

Long has shown better command of his four-seamer and sinker, which have both averaged more velocity this season sitting around 94.

Behind him lies a strong Giants bullpen which should have a lot of quality arms available, and we can expect Gabe Kapler to find some tough matchups for the Brewers in this one.

Brewers Will Need Dominant Burnes

After a slow start to the campaign, Milwaukee has fired off wins in six of its last seven and now paces the NL Central with it’s 10-6 record.

The offense has struggled badly vs left-handed pitching, however, and has not been overly dominant altogether. Milwaukee has managed a lowly 62 wRC+ against lefties, with a wOBA. of .257.

We know Kapler will probably find some tough matchups for each part of the order out of the ‘pen, and the Brewers have posted middling results at the plate overall with an xwOBA .323.

This means it will be crucial for Burnes to provide yet another excellent outing Monday. Burnes has bounced back after a rough opening start at Wrigley with 18 Ks and 2 ER in 14 innings.

Burnes has pitched to an xERA of 3.28 this season, with a much more average hard hit rate of 45.5% and an xwOBA of .310. I do not think counting on a lot of regression in results from Burnes moving forward would be overly wise, but this spot certainly dictates he will need to be sharp again.

Giants Brewers pick

With how Long has pitched in the early going of this season, he should open this one up with some effective innings for a Giants club that should have the majority of its quality bullpen available.

The Brewers’ lineup is looking pretty soft to begin this season, and I think we should see the Giants able to keep them to a reasonable total.

San Francisco’s order also figures to be a tough matchup for Burnes, and it could be possible we see him allowing more than average in this spot.

I think we will see the Giants hang around, and I see value at +105 for the game to be even or better for San Francisco through five innings. Playing San Francisco to win the first five innings at +170 also looks good, and would likely provide about the same value.

Pick: San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings +0.5 +105

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