Where do the San Francisco 49ers stand with Jimmy Garoppolo? (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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The San Francisco 49ers figured to move off longtime starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo before NFL free agency even started last week.

Both the 49ers and Garoppolo admitted immediately following San Francisco’s NFC Championship Game loss to the Los Angeles Rams that his time in Northern Calfornia was coming to an end.

Now, nearly a year after San Francisco traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft to draft Garoppolo’s heir-apparent, his situation is more complicated.

To be clear. Trey Lance will be the 49ers’ Week 1 starter once the 2022 season comes calling. Garoppolo will not be on the roster.

With that said, we’re now entering the second week of NFL free agency and Garoppolo remains on the 49ers’ books with a cap hit of $26.95 million. It has impacted their ability to be big-time players during free agency with one high-priced signing and multiple lower-level deals.

Now that the likes of fellow quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Dashaun Watson have been traded, the market for Garoppolo’s services has shrunk. With Baker Mayfield firmly on the block, too, it could shrink even more. Below, I look at where we are at in the entire Garoppolo saga with the 49ers.

Jimmy Garoppolo Trade Market

Deshaun Watson trade complicates Jimmy Garoppolo’s market. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith, File)

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Previously linked to Garoppolo, a number of teams have found their new starting quarterbacks. That includes Russell Wilson heading to the Denver Broncos, the Cleveland Browns pulling off a blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson and the Washington Commanders adding Carson Wentz to the mix.

If we conclude San Francisco is not going to trade Garoppolo to the division rival Seattle Seahawks, there’s less than a handful of teams that make sense for the Super Bowl quarterback.

The Indianapolis Colts remain very much in the market for Garoppolo and had trade discussions with San Francisco about the veteran during the NFL Scouting Combine. It’s also important to note that Colts general manager Chris Ballard has dealt with San Francisco’s front office recently. That included the 49ers trading star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to Indy following the 2019 season.

However, things are complicated here due to Mayfield’s presence on the trade market after Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson on Saturday. Having requested a trade prior to that blockbuster, Mayfield is not in a position to dictate where he goes.

With that said, it’s being reported that he prefers the Colts — further complicating San Francisco’s ability to trade Garoppolo. The Seattle Seahawks are also firmly in the mix for Mayfield and have had internal conversations about acquiring him after sending Wilson to the Broncos. Could Seattle use some of the bounty it received from Denver to entice the Browns in a trade? This would be the best-case scenario for San Francisco, setting the stage for a Garoppolo trade to Indianapolis.

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There’s also two NFC South teams (and potentially a third squad) in the market for a new quarterback.

The Carolina Panthers struck out in their attempt to acquire the aforementioned Watson. They now have to make a choice between selecting a rookie quarterback in the top-10 of the 2022 NFL Draft or biting the bullet on a Garoppolo trade. After all, the Panthers’ brass has made it clear that Sam Darnold is not the answer under center following his disastrous first season in Charlotte.

Also in a Watson trade, the New Orleans Saints find themselves in an unenviable position in the post-Sean Payton era. Taysom Hill is the only in-house candidate to take over under center. However, the Saints do have interest in re-signing Jameis Winston after he suffered a torn ACL last season. Will Winston’s familiarity with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael’s scheme play a role in the Saints’ decision-making process? San Francisco hopes not.

As for the other AFC South team, the Atlanta Falcons were close to finalizing a deal for Watson before Cleveland came through to offer him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract.

While Atlanta kept veteran quarterback Matt Ryan in the mix behind the scenes, there’s a decent chance the former NFL MVP will ultimately request a trade. Likely wanting to join a contender, his market might be impacted. Perhaps, the Seahawks or Colts show interest.

Either way, it’s hard to imagine the Falcons turning around and acquiring Garoppolo should they be forced to trade Ryan. In this scenario, Arthur Blank’s team might just opt ​​to go into full-scale rebuild mode.

Timeline And Details Of A Potential Jimmy Garoppolo Trade

Jimmy Garoppolo traded to the Carolina Panthers could make sense. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

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From San Francisco’s perspective, the sooner the better. There’s absolutely no reason for this to draw on any further. Realistically, it would be a nightmare scenario if a trade is not finalized before the 2022 NFL Draft late next month. In fact, the 49ers want some sort of resolution within the week.

Any thought given to the idea that this will still remain unsettled come summer time an training camp is laughable.

There’s a few reasons for this. The 49ers currently find themselves $7.74 million under the cap. Garoppolo’s $26.95 million cap hit is still on the books. Ridding them of that figure would help the 49ers’ brass add to other areas of need before the NFL free agent market thins out even more.

San Francisco has needs at wide receiver, guard, edge pass rush and cornerback — needs it will not be able to address in a wholesale manner during the 2022 NFL Draft without a first-round pick.

For example, the 49ers have been linked to former New England Patriots All-Pro cornerback Stephen Gilmore. His going rate will be north of $12 million annually. Even after signing fellow cornerback Charvarius Ward, San Francisco still has interest in Gilmore. It will not be able to finalize a deal until Garoppolo is off the team’s books.

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Recently-released former Tennessee Titans wide receiver Julio Jones is also someone the 49ers’ brass figures to have interest in given his relationship with head coach Kyle Shanahan dating back to their time together with the Atlanta Falcons. In short, moving Garoppolo should be San Francisco’s next big move.

The question then becomes what a trade might look like. Let’s take the Carolina Panthers out of the group above and focus on that initially. Carolina finds itself $31.79 million under the cap. It could easily take on Garoppolo’s contract without blinking an eye from a financial perspective. At issue here is Darnold’s presence and $18.86 million cap hit. Will general manager Scott Fitterer want to dole out north of $43 million in cap room to two marginal quarterbacks?

As with any potential trade, there’s other avenues to pursue. San Francisco could agree to take on Darnold as a backup to Lance. In the process, it demands more in return by picking up some of his $18.86 million cap hit. That is to say, demanding the Panthers up the ante by agreeing to pay out half of it. In this scenario, the 49ers add more draft capital.

It’s also not a secret that Carolina has injury-plagued All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on the trade block. His value has decreased big time with the former Stanford star having played a total of 10 games over the past two seasons.

Perhaps, the 49ers opt to take a chance that McCaffrey’s injuries are behind him while adding the dynamic threat to Kyle Shanahan’s offense. At full strength, he’d be a perfect fit. After losing Raheem Mostert to the Miami Dolphins, running back also remains a need for the 49ers.

With a base salary of $8.4 million, the 49ers would be able to take on McCaffrey’s cap hit while adding other pieces in free agency. This scenario would also include Carolina sending some draft capital to Northern California.

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Things get less complicated when it comes to the Colts and Saints. Both have the cap room to add Garoppolo to the mix without having to trade away a quarterback contract. Indianapolis could offer up its second-round pick and change for Jimmy GQ. The same thing could be said about New Orleans.

As it is, this is a situation the 49ers need to settle in short order. It has handcuffed them during NFL free agency. By trading Garoppolo, San Francisco would then be able to focus on adding more veterans to the mix before turning its attention to the 2022 NFL Draft as well as extending Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa.

Right now, things are in a holding pattern. And in reality, that’s not a great look.

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Anything can happen in the next month before the Jets are on the clock in the first round of the NFL draft. However, with two blockbuster deals on Friday, it appears New York is positioning itself to bring in number 2 BYU quarterback Zach Wilson.

By early Friday afternoon, it was revealed that the 49ers had traded 3rd and sent a ton of picks to the Dolphins as Miami returned to 12th overall. The trade as first reported by Adam Schefter from ESPN contains two future first-round picks.

It’s the type of trade you make to level up and get a quarterback. Even if the 49ers are supposedly staying with Jimmy GaroppoloThe expectation is that this year’s quarterback class will get off the board early and often. This puts San Francisco in the middle of this process.

Given the connections between the 49ers and the Jets, namely New York’s new head coach Robert Saleh, imagine San Francisco trying to call Jets general manager Joe Douglas to become the second overall winner.

As much as that would make sense, it turns out that San Francisco never contacted the Jets about the number 2.

Maybe San Francisco already knows what New York is up to? The 49ers were likely one of the teams that reached out to the Jets to inquire about Sam Darnold’s availability. Maybe the number 2 was already excluded in the off-season?

As if that were enough breaking news for the day, Miami returned to the top 10 a moment later, trading a selection of picks with the Eagles in another blockbuster.

The Eagles also wanted to trade all the way to number 3, according to the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, but Philadelphia pulled back because they didn’t think Zach Wilson would be available.

Rapoport later made it clear that this had more to do with Philadelphia’s rebuilding and internal assessments of whether it would be worth trading that high on this year’s draft.

In either case, the big advantage is that other teams act on the assumption that Wilson will no longer be available after the second choice. Any team looking to design a quarterback under Choice # 2 would work with Justin Fields of Ohio, Trey Lance of North Dakota, or Mac Jones of Alabama.

New York could have been busy on Friday if they wanted to swap number 2 away. Sure, the full story about the Jets’ involvement in negotiations and possible proposals is unclear at this point, but this was a perfect opportunity to secure a lot of value if the plan was to stick with Darnold. That opportunity came and went.

Few teams left – possibly the Denver Broncos or Carolina Panthers – could be in the market to trade in for a quarterback. Would you blow Douglas and his team away with an offer New York can’t refuse? Sounds like it has to be more than Miami got from San Francisco.

Even then, the jets couldn’t accept it.

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Just like that, the NFL world changed.

Much like the NFL design landscape completely changed in 2018 when the New York Jets skipped the Denver Broncos to switch from pick # 6 to pick # 3 in a deal with the Indianapolis Colts – back when John Elway called “heart eyes” owned by Sam Darnold – The San Francisco 49ers just made a deal with pick # 12 on # 3 on the 2021 draft in a deal with the Miami Dolphins.

The Niners advance for a quarterback.

The Dolphins went 12th and back 6th with an escort deal with the Philadelphia Eagles after they recently made a top 5 pick for QB Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 and everything stalled regarding Deshaun Watson ( Allegations of sexual misconduct).

When you get from # 3 to # 12 and back to # 6, the Dolphins are back within reach for blue-chip talent like Oregon OT Penei Sewell, Florida TE Kyle Pitts, or one of this year’s Big 3 to select. at Wide Receiver in Alabama’s Jalen Waddle, Devonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase from LSU.

Where do these tectonic businesses leave Denver?

It depends on how the Broncos really see Drew Lock. Denver is now in the weird position of not having immediate, urgent roster requests while being a team that is little more than an afterthought into the NFL landscape.

The national perspective on the Broncos is determined in part by their quarterback position, especially when compared to the division enemies of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. The Broncos could still opt for a quarterback, however.

The first three picks of the draft are now written in pen form, with Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence 1st in the Jacksonville Jaguars, Zach Wilson 2nd in the New York Jets and Trey Lance 3rd in the Niners QBs like Mac Jones of Alabama or Justin Fields of Ohio State may also be considered, but given the current league consensus, Lance should be the favorite.

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All eyes will fall on the Atlanta Falcons at pick # 4

Will the Falcons take a quarterback or rather move from fourth place to a team that wants to move up? Given that the Falcons have just restructured longtime QB Matt Ryan’s contract, some might suspect that it doesn’t make sense for Atlanta to opt for a signal caller.

Given how rare the top of this class of quarterback is talented and how valuable it is to have a cost-controlled quarterback in today’s NFL, maybe Atlanta will make a big picture of adding a quarterback under a new combination of general manager and head coach The team wouldn’t have a chance in the future.

Is it possible for quarterbacks to pick 1-2-3-4 for the first time in NFL history? Not only does this seem possible, it is also becoming more and more likely. The teams selected mid-to-finish in the first round of this draft essentially threw in the towel in the form of the Chicago Bears that Andy Dalton and the Washington Football team signed up with Ryan Fitzpatrick and them in some way Leaving quarterback purgatory behind.

The Purgatory teams are a fair warning to the Broncos given the strength of the current roster for 2021, even if Lock is back to a bottom 5 quarterback in the NFL next season. Given that teams are beginning to understand the value of a cost-controlled rookie quarterback, it cannot be ruled out that signal callers who get off the board earlier than in previous years and form more clusters at the top may not become a trend .

Any doubts about the incumbent? Get your QB

If you are at the top and have questions about your QB, now is the time to level up as there is no guarantee that you will be close enough for the next year. Denver may already have missed this boat due to Friday’s spate of blockbuster draft trades.

Given the price the Niners just paid, the Jets are turning down the trade offers for the number 2 altogether (they go on QB). All indications are that the 2022 NFL quarterback class is decrepit compared to the top of their 2021 class.

What is Denver doing now? It really comes down to what happens to Atlanta in fourth place overall. If a quarterback Denver likes from the Big Four (or the Big Five, depending on who you ask) is there with Atlanta’s current draft slot and the Falcons are ready to act, the Broncos could get a big boost do.

One of Fields, Lance, or Jones within Denver’s reach

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In essence, Denver can take Lawrence and Wilson off the board, but either Fields, Lance, or Jones will be in fourth place. If Atlanta isn’t ready to leave in 4th place, or Denver doesn’t think the price is reasonable, the Broncos should hope and pray that either Sewell or Pitts will be the only blue-chip prospects in this class to drop 9th.

That’s unlikely, but given Sewell’s year-long bond in Oregon and some in the league favoring northwestern OT Rashaun Slater, as well as the tight end Pitts is playing a “devalued” position, those two could be pushed further down. If both are there, choose # 9, Paton shouldn’t overthink it.

Expect a trade down when the Big Four are gone

What fans are more likely to see, however, is the decline in the Broncos, provided GM George Paton can find a willing partner. That would take another team trying to trade for it, and Dever trading is more workable in theory than it is in reality, but that’s what Paton should hope for in this scenario.

If traded down, the Broncos are unlikely to get the value the Dolphins just received, especially if the trade doesn’t involve a team moving up for QB (unlikely given how much Carolina you have on pick # 8 would like to). What would the Broncos’ goal be in a trade down?

Focus on the future

Given how well Paton has filled out the roster for 2021, eyes should be on 2022 where the Broncos have a number of players eager to choose. Veterans like Von Miller, Bryce Callahan, Kareem Jackson, Kyle Fuller, Josey Jewell, Alexander Johnson, Melvin Gordon and (most likely due to his injury history and contract structure) Ja’Wuan James could continue next year.

This means that in the event of a trade down, the Broncos can plan for the future by targeting value positions and pegging preventive holes a year prior to exposure. The goal is edge rusher, offensive tackle, and cornerback as these are three of the highest paying positions in the NFL. It usually takes a year for potential players to play these spots.

It’s just a good long-term rostering strategy not to have to rely on an edge rusher, tackle, or corner in your rookie year and have them up and running (and cheap when there are four years of control left) . In reality, the Broncos are now in a place of concern.

Despite statistical improbability, Lock could still go around the corner

It would take a historic turnaround and runaway start in his career for Lock to develop and eventually become the quarterback the Broncos need to be real contenders. Sure, the Broncos could be good for a year on this defense, but the year-to-year defense is volatile.

Look no further than how the years after the Bears 2018, the Jaguars 2017 and the Niners 2019 turned out for you. Large defenses quickly return to the mean.

Without a quarterback, a team’s window closes in a flash, which is why the Niners originally ranked 12th in a top-heavy quarterback class and were willing to pay such a high price to trade by age five and get an elite perspective of cost control at the position.

Bottom line

Paton has done a great job so far this offseason filling out the Broncos roster, but living in today’s NFL without a top 5 quarterback (or a top 10-15 quarterback on a rookie contract) is the equivalent of soccer -Nihilism. Without the quarterback crossing a certain threshold, your team is not considering the big NFL picture.

It’s a league where you have quarterback or not, and if you don’t have The Guy, good luck.

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