The heavy fog that persisted across the San Francisco Bay Area for days has finally lifted, and Tuesday marks the start of warmer weather and sunnier skies with temperatures in the mid-80s to low 90s. But keep your jacket handy as temperatures are expected to drop over the weekend, and there’s even a chance of rain along with some desiccating offshore winds.

On Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service said there’s a 20% to 30% chance the Bay Area could see light rain.

In the first half of October, the Bay Area saw an extended spell of thick summer-like fog that blanketed the coast most mornings and pushed into inland valleys many days. The marine layer persisted for about two weeks, bringing unseasonably cooler weather and also reducing the risk of wildfires at a time of year when destructive blazes are common.

On Tuesday, temperatures are expected to start climbing as high pressure associated with warming builds; inland areas could get into the low 80s and coastal spots the mid-70s. Wednesday is expected to be the hottest day of the week with afternoon highs in coastal areas in the 70s and inland valleys in the 80s, according to the weather service. The hottest spots could get into the 90s. Thursday is expected to be slightly cooler than Wednesday.

“We’re definitely looking at a warm-up this week as temperatures get above normal in mid-week, at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal,” said Rick Canepa, a forecaster with the weather service.

After midweek heat (mid 80s to low 90s) across the interior, be on the lookout for rain this weekend. There’s roughly a 20-30% chance we’ll see a few hundredths of rain this weekend for much of the #BayArea and #CentralCA. #cawx pic.twitter.com/egoLmGl8qR

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) October 18, 2022

Friday is forecast to bring another shift in the weather as a cold system from the Pacific Northwest pushes into California, Canepa said.

Canepa said there’s a chance of spotty showers across the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend, especially on Saturday morning, but the system will likely have mostly dried out by the time it hits the region.

“It’s mainly going to affect the Pacific Northwest and far Northern California,” Canepa said. “It’s not looking like the rain in the Bay Area would amount to much, a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. I’d say there’s a very slight chance to a chance of rain. That’s definitely subject to change.”

The weather service released rainfall probabilities for locations across the Bay Area this weekend. In San Jose and Livermore, there’s a 32% chance of 0.01 inch, while in Santa Rosa there’s a 24% chance of 0.01 inch.

As the system exits the region on Saturday, it could kick up some offshore winds Sunday into Monday. These desiccating winds are common in September and October and are known for fanning wildfire flames. Canepa said strong widespread offshore winds that would trigger a red flag warning due to high wildfire risk are unlikely. Coastal areas and the hills of the North Bay and East Bay are most likely to see the breezy conditions.

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After the sweltering weather during the work week, the San Francisco Bay Area is expected to see cooler temperatures and breezy conditions through the weekend and a chance of rain on Monday, the National Weather Service said.

The ridge of high pressure that was hunkered over California and drove up temperatures has broken down, allowing cold fronts and storm systems to reach the region.

A dry cold front sweeping Northern California on Saturday is expected to push down Bay Area temperatures and kick up winds. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s inland and in the upper 50s on the coast. Winds will heighten wildfire risk, especially after the heat wave that dried out vegetation, the weather service said. On Sunday, temperatures will likely continue to drop, with afternoon highs in the low 70s in inland valleys and low 50s at the coast.

A weak storm system is expected to drop down from the Pacific Northwest on Monday, arriving in the North Bay in the morning and spreading south into the central Bay Area in the afternoon, said Roger Gass, a forecaster with the weather service.

This is good news for a region that saw record-low rainfall for the period of January through March, but the projected rainfall totals are minimal and won’t put a dent in drought conditions.

“Right now, generally speaking, precipitation chances for the Bay Area are in the 40% to 60% range for Monday,” said Gass. “Most locations will see less than a tenth of an inch. Some of the coastal ranges could pick up two tenths of an inch to a quarter of an inch.”

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A late-summer storm system over the Gulf of Alaska will move south in the coming days, bringing a chance of rain to water-starved, wildfire-prone Northern California. It may potentially deliver a sprinkling to the San Francisco Bay Area and wet many of the wildfires that have burned for weeks, the National Weather Service said.

While the forecast will likely shift later this week, as of Tuesday morning weather models showed the window for rain in the Bay Area running from Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

“The greatest chance is in the North Bay,” said Jeff Lorber, a meteorologist with the weather service.

The chance for rain stands at about 20% for Napa and Sonoma counties, 15% for San Francisco and 10% in the South Bay, Lorber said.

Latest Climate Prediction Center outlook shows high probability of below normal temps and above normal predict this weekend and early next week in the PacNW as a trough moves onshore. Might some premise reach the #BayArea?? We’re keeping an eye on it. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/PU3YfRO01j

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) September 14, 2021

The Pacific Northwest is expected to receive a soaking of rain Friday into Saturday. It’s unclear how well the system will hold together as it pushes into the water-starved Golden State, and Lorber said these storms often fall apart as they move south.

“It will reach the Pacific Northwest and, depending on how deep this trough becomes, will determine how far south the rain goes,” he said.

California is desperate for rain as reservoir levels sink to record low levels and the vegetation on the ground is parched and highly flammable after two consecutive dry winters.

The Dixie Fire, 250 miles northeast of San Francisco, has been burning for two months and is approaching 1 million acres. The Caldor Fire led to evacuations in South Lake Tahoe. Both of these blazes could benefit from moisture.

“It is a low-confidence forecast, but the best chances would probably be over the Dixie Fire over the Caldor Fire,” said Emily Heller, a forecaster with the weather service’s Sacramento office. “The further south we go, the less probability there is. The best chances would most likely be in the Saturday to Sunday timeframe, and as of right now we’re not expecting heavy rain or thunderstorms.”

Cooler temperatures are expected later this week with rains spreading into the area Friday night and Saturday. Storm total #rainfall through the weekend is expected to range from nearly 2″ across the N Del Norte mountains to a few hundredths of an inch in S Lake County. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/Nw686Ou4Vu

— NWS Eureka (@NWSEureka) September 14, 2021

The far northwest corner of California is expected to see the most rain over the weekend event; up to 2 inches is possible in the mountains of Del Norte County. Crescent City is forecast to see 1.36 inches, Yreka 0.54 inch and Shasta 0.42 inch, the weather service’s Eureka office said.

The forecast is likely to change in coming days as weather models are often in disagreement over the first storms of the rainy season.

“With these early season storm systems, often the models are overly optimistic,” said Lorber, noting that even the slightest bit of drizzle would still be beneficial with the dry vegetation. “Any rain is good news with the really dry fuels. Moisture is really desperately needed, as we have near-record dry fuels.”

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Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers lost heartbreakingly to the Green Bay Packers in Sunday Night Football 30:28 after a game-winning 51-yard field goal from kicker Mason Crosby after time ran out.

One of the key games for the 49ers on the track was 3rd and 10th with their own 25.

Kittle, who caught seven passes for 92 yards, was second on the team with nine passes, just behind Deebo Samuel, who was thrown ten times on Sunday and took five of those passes.

After the game, Kittle, who is often viewed as temperamental, encouraged his team to swallow the loss and move on to the next weekend, trying to get better from week to week.

“You know, what I said after the game was take 24 hours, mourn the loss, do whatever you want with it,” Kittle told NBC Sports after the loss. “We’re coming in [next week and] We’ll look at the tape. Look in the mirror, see what you can do better, and then take that into the next week. “

While fixing the mistakes from the last game is important, Kittle looked forward to next week as he plans to cheer the Seahawks at home in the far end of their two-game home stretch.

“You know, whatever you didn’t bring last week, bring something new to the table, get better on one thing this week,” Kittle continued. “We got the damn Seahawks coming in [so] I’m excited about that. We have the division rival [and] I’m really excited to have a chance to cheer her on. I know they will bring all of their energy and all of their best guys here so it will be one hell of a fight. If you don’t have the right attitude for it, you’re not on the right football team. “

After losing to the Packers, the 49ers are now 3rd in NFC West with a 2-1 record as the Cardinals and Rams both stay 3-0 after their victories on Sunday.

Now the 49ers will turn their attention to the Seahawks, who are currently 1-2, lost 30-17 to the Minnesota Vikings and finished fourth in NFC West. This game will be an afternoon game at Levi’s next weekend.

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Retired NFL player Burgess Owens explained why he was for 4th. “

Owens, a Fox News employee, told Sunday Morning Futures in an exclusive interview that Democratic leaders are people who “have no compassion for others” and “love misery”.

“Misery is a strategy and you look at every single blue city in our country, you see death, you see destruction, you see anger,” Owens said, referring to the violent protests in cities across the country after the death of George Floyd, a Black man, in Minneapolis Police custody.

“If you want to see systemic racism, look for democratic cities and you see more black people angry and hopeless than ever before, so we have to understand that it’s all about politics,” he continued.

He added: “I don’t care if you are poor, middle class or very wealthy, if you care about our children, if you care about our children’s future, we need to make sure that we give the Democrats control over their future and from this party that uses misery as a political strategy. ”

The former security for the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders emphasized that America “must now go in the right direction”.

Owens expressed support for President Trump during the Republican National Convention last month.

In his RNC speech, Owens shared that he lost everything after his Super Bowl championship with the Oakland Raiders and moved his family of six to a one-room apartment in Brooklyn, where he took a daytime job as a chimney sweep and a security guard at night.

“We live in a country where we are encouraged to dream big, where second chance is at the core of our American DNA,” Owens said during his RNC speech.

“We don’t hear the same message from [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosis Congress, professional politicians, elites and even a former bartender who want us to believe that it is impossible. They want us to believe that what I did, what my great-great-grandfather did, is impossible for ordinary Americans. “

Host Maria Bartiromo noted that President Trump got a slap in the pole from black voters after the RNC.

Then she asked Owens, “How do you think the feeling in the black community is about President Trump and his politics?”

“What we have to understand about our country is that we all want the same thing, regardless of our skin color, our background, our creed, our religion; Life, freedom and the pursuit of happiness, and the black community has grappled with death for life, freedom and the pursuit of happiness for decades because we trusted the Democratic Party, “Owens said in response.

EX-NFL PLAYER JACK BREWER “FED UP” WITH MEDIA CALLING TRUMP A RACIST

He added, “What happened today is [in] the last three years … Black Americans, Hispanics, Asians, women, veterans are finally realizing that we have a president who just doesn’t talk and promise, he’ll get results. ”

Owens continued, “We’re experiencing things we haven’t seen in decades, and that’s why black Americans wake up and leave the plantation.”

“The best thing President Obama did was that he was such a bad president that one day people woke up and said, ‘What happened to hope and change?’ And that’s what happens today, ”he continued. “We recognize that the middle class and the poor have suffered tremendously in the eight years of Obama-Biden and now see that it doesn’t have to be that way.”

Owens stressed that Americans “don’t have to have the low expectation that we had for people at risk, so let’s wake up now.”

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“We have black Americans across the country wearing MAGA hats because they’re far from being intimidated and verbally abused,” he added. “We love our country, we love our children, we love our future and we want to be hopeful, so we’re seeing this right now.”

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1a. I believe in second chances. And third and fourth chances. Folks will argue that playing in the NFL is a privilege and not a right, but for some players it is their only marketable skill; taking it away indefinitely is draconian (not to mention, the kind of power Roger Goodell should not—and, legally, cannot—exercise). People change, especially in their 20s and 30s, and every one of them deserves a pathway to redemption.

However, the pathway must involve some baseline effort at rehabilitation. Right? A hint of contrition? Even just a show that he is making the slightest effort to maybe think about possibly making amends for his actions? With that in mind: Did Antonio Brown do that?

You could do some mental gymnastics and convince yourself he did the absolute bare minimum. There were some apologies—under a markedly different writing style than we usually get from him—posted on his social media accounts. He took cuts at a few softballs last winter and dispensed the type of reflexive, mealy-mouthed, non-specific apology I wouldn’t accept from my preschooler. And when it came to his abhorrent treatment of women, he played the victim card. I mean, this is an actual quote from February:

“I feel like I never really got in a conflict with no woman. I just feel like I’m a target so, anybody can come against me and say anything and I’m going to have to face it. There’s no support, there’s no egos, there’s no rules in it, anyone can come after me for anything. No proof or whatever. ‘He said, she’s saying.’ The media will run with it, so even if I’m not guilty, I already guilty because they already wrote it, put it on TV and put that in people minds. So for me to have to sit here and hear those the allegations of me is just unfair to me every time.”

Brown’s mistreatment of women has been chronicled in police reports, sometimes on his own social media accounts and in the accounts of accusers. If he was referring to our source who, in September 2019, accused Brown of sexual misconduct, a quick refresher: She did not come to us—we found her. Her story and her background held up against exhaustive vetting by our team. And despite what you might have heard on sports radio or seen on social media from the kind of people who have yet to realize you can breathe through your nose, at no point did she ever give an indication that there was financial motivation.

Each of us are, in the simplest terms, the sum of our actions, and our actions are shaped by our circumstances. After spending the summer of 2019 researching Brown’s behavior, I write this with a fair amount of confidence: Superstardom on the football field shaped Antonio Brown, and not in a good way. It made him feel like others—viewed as being beneath his station as a star athlete—could be treated however he saw fit, without consequence. Brown was surrounded by the typical variety of toadies and stooges who encouraged that kind of behavior, but he has also been enabled by coaches and teammates as well. Tom Brady is now chief among them.

Over the past 13 months, Tom Brady has floated the notion that he and his football team’s culture is what Brown needs—apparently ignoring the fact that, while a teammate of Brady’s, Brown saw fit to send threatening texts to a credible accuser. For Brown, football isn’t the solution, it’s part of the problem.

This isn’t about rehabilitating Antonio Brown as a man, because he’s never shown even the slightest interest in being rehabilitated. (And if Brady is interested in helping troubled players, there are many who are more deserving than Brown.) No, this is the opposite of rehabilitation: It reinforces that as long as the greatest receiver of this generation is still in his prime, there are no consequences, especially when it comes to people who don’t have a role in winning football games. And Brady will always be there to fight those consequences—every single one—because there is no greater calling in life than maximizing your chance to win football games.

We can only hope we’ve arrived at the final act of this farce. It will further cement the legacy of Tom Brady the player as a guy who won a lot of football games. And it will further cement the legacy of Tom Brady the man as a guy who won a lot of football games.

1b. Also, congratulations to Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks organization for lowering themselves into the sewer and not even coming away with their man.

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Whatever. Here’s some analysis of the week’s games and news interspersed with poop jokes…

USA Today Photos (5)

2. Anyone with optic nerves that transmit images to their brain knows that the Steelers defense poses a stiff test for the Titans. But what’s even more worrisome for Tennessee is that this Steelers defense is almost custom-built to deal with their offense.

Pittsburgh has the best run defense in football by just about any metric, but I want to focus in on its defensive line Stuff Percentage (a league-leading 32% according to Football Outsiders) and the fact that Vince Williams—maybe the closest thing to a “weak link” in its defensive front—leads the NFL in tackles for loss (10) while T.J. Watt is tied for second (9) and even slot corner Mike Hilton (5) is top-20. The book on Derrick Henry is that, while he’s superhuman once he gets to the second level, he’s a mere mortal around and behind the line of scrimmage. The Steelers often don’t allow backs to get to the second level, and while I don’t like touting the vague notion of “physicality,” there’s no doubt that the Steelers’ cast of front-seven characters are capable of handling Henry. And, yes, Devin Bush is out, but so is Taylor Lewan, which means Bud Dupree will get to pick on Ty Sambrailo, for whom “functional strength” has been an issue throughout his career (I write while struggling to summon the strength to get off my couch and get more candy corn).

Play-action is the other staple of the Titans offense—one very much aided by the fact that linebackers often get sucked up more than they normally would because everyone is trying to get to Henry before he gets a head of steam. But playing behind-schedule is an issue for anyone’s play-action offense. The average second-down distance for Pittsburgh’s opponents this year has been 9.22 yards, which is a number that has no right existing outside a science-fiction short story about a dystopian future where footballs have been replaced by 600-pound anvils. If the Titans find themselves in a lot of second- or third-and-long, that play-action game becomes less effective. (And we haven’t mentioned the steady diet of Minkah Fitzpatrick in disguised robber coverages the Titans are likely to see.)

Look at what happened to Cleveland against the Steelers last week. The Browns’ system is loosely similar to Tennessee’s (zone running and play-action off it). But with the Steelers’ dominant run defense mitigating that play-action game, Cleveland was utterly doomed. And you could argue that the Browns are better than Tennessee at every offensive position—except quarterback.

And with that, I arrive at the core point of this meandering take. Ryan Tannehill might not be an MVP-type quarterback (yes, I’ve seen the stats). But since arriving in Nashville, he has been an exceptionally good system quarterback who’s an exceptionally good fit in an exceptionally good system. What he hasn’t been is a guy who’s going to make plays off-schedule and have a lot of success on third-and-long. So far this season, the Titans rank 26th in third-and-long (defined as 6-plus yards to gain) at 21.7%. They were 22nd (26.5%) after Tannehill took over as the starter last year.

Carson Wentz and Mayfield are the last two quarterbacks Pittsburgh faced. Wentz, for all the Josh Allen-esque mistakes he’ll make late in the down, also has the ability to create Josh Allen-esque magic. The Eagles went 5-for-7 on third-and-long in Pittsburgh, which is how they put up 29 points and hung around, and it’s a big reason why the Steelers still rank near the bottom of the league in third-and-long defense (28th, at 38.9% allowed). Mayfield, on the other hand, hasn’t shown the ability to make out-of-structure plays this season, and didn’t do so in Pittsburgh, which is why that game was not competitive.

When Tannehill played in Miami, the later in the down it got, the worse off he was. In Tennessee, he’s rarely had to make plays out-of-structure. He’s a 57.0% passer on third-and-long since becoming the Titans starter, which is actually slightly lower than the mark he posted in Miami (57.4%). Sunday is shaping up to be a week where he’s going to have to make a handful of plays outside of the system. Whether or not he rises to the occasion will determine which of these teams stays undefeated.

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3. It seems the Dolphins had circled the bye week for promoting Tua Tagovailoa all along, but doing it now makes plenty of sense. The biggest deterrent to throwing a young quarterback into the fire is an offensive line that can’t protect him—Miami couldn’t do this a year ago. But their young offensive line has improved immensely, to the point that it’s league-average and trending up.

The other factor is that, as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been in 2020, they know it’s not going to last for 16 games. Because it’s never lasted for 16 games. Sometimes when you get on a hot streak at the craps table, you just have to walk away.

You likely already know Fitzpatrick’s origin story—no formal education, worked as a chimney sweep, radioactive squirrel bites him and he gains the power to ace the Wonderlic, Rams draft him, etc. etc. etc. He took the demotion as graciously as possible, and mentioned he might have made his final start, which might be true. But, while he’s 38 in November, he has for the most part maintained the physical traits he had when he entered the league. He can move an offense as well as any backup in football, and it seems he did just fine in the mentor role with Tua. Most likely, he bought himself at least one more chance to be someone’s bridge quarterback.

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4. Not sure why, but I’ve been thinking about this clip a lot this weekend:

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5. We’re all furrowing our brows in a vain attempt to understand the Bears’ 5–1 record. We know luck—the same kind of pure, stupid luck that shines on a team or two every season—has something to do with it, and the Vaudevillian nature of their opponents’ fourth-quarter gaffes draws the eye to late-game scenarios. But hey, the points in the first three quarters count the same as the ones in the fourth quarter.

If you really want to understand the one fluke constant with Chicago, look at its outlier defensive performance in the red zone. Red-zone performance on both sides of the ball tends to fluctuate wildly year to year, due to the small sample size and the unique nature of the tight field. To credit the Bears’ red-zone success to some kind of otherworldly situational football play, you’d also be arguing that the Ravens (fourth-worst red-zone defense in 2020) and Titans (third-worst) are bad situational defenses. Or that the Packers were a great situational defense last year (fourth-best red-zone defense) but, with the same staff and roster, forgot how to play situational defense this year (second-worst red-zone defense).

The Bears are allowing a league-leading 36.4% touchdown percentage—they allowed a TD rate over 50% each of the past two seasons, and were 48% or higher each of the last eight years. Only the Cardinals are allowing fewer points per red-zone trip (4.0). And since they’ve played 22 red-zone possessions, if Chicago’s 4.14 number were closer to the league-average (5.13), you’d be talking about a three-point increase in points-per-game allowed.

However, last week’s win in Carolina was at least a blueprint of how they should be expected to win games: They had constant pressure on Teddy Bridgewater, resulting in four sacks and three takeaways (though one was when Panthers RB Mike Davis forgot he was carrying a football in the open field).

The difference between the 2018 and ’19 Bears was takeaways. They led the league in ’18 (36) but fell to 22nd last season, as the number was almost halved (19). Part of that is luck. Part of it was a down year for Khalil Mack, who very much looks like his all-world self again in 2020. The takeaways weren’t coming during the 4-1 start—just five over those first five games—but pressure creates turnovers, and the pressure has been there this season. A multi-takeaway outing like the one in Charlotte shouldn’t be an outlier.

No matter how good your defense is, you’re walking a tightrope when your offense is this level of inept. However, the Bears could go 4–6 from here on out and still make the playoffs—a 5–5 finish would virtually guarantee postseason football. And once they’re in the tournament, with this defense and with a quarterback with a history of getting very hot in January, anything goes.

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6a. The funny thing about Yannick Ngakoue joining the Ravens is that Baltimore has consistently used overload, fire-zone blitzes to generate pressure in order to make up for the fact that they don’t have a truly dominant edge rusher. And now, in Ngakoue, they’re adding a dominant edge rusher. Though now that I read it I guess that’s not as funny as I originally thought.

Defensive coordinator Don Martindale (or, as many call him, “Mink” Martindale, due to his fondness for the semiaquatic, carnivorous animal) now has a chance to be a little more flexible in his approach. With Ngakoue capable of creating pressure independent of scheme, they could take an approach more along the lines of what the Steelers do: blitz-happy on early downs, four-man rush in front of coverage on third down.

6b. From the Vikings’ perspective, clearly they thought they were going to make a run this year. That just isn’t the case as long as the NFL insists on setting the playoff field based on win-loss record. And considering the fact that they’re in cap heck the next two seasons, it didn’t make sense to commit to Ngakoue long-term—not only would they be paying a premium to Ngakoue, but they’d surely have to adjust Danielle Hunter’s below-market deal if they did. They didn’t get caught up in sunk-cost fallacy, so good on them.

6c. The move also suggests this might be fellow pending free agent Matt Judon’s last year in Baltimore. He’s a very good player, but probably a half-step below Ngakoue talent-wise (not to mention three years older). If Ngakoue works out—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—and gets a long-term deal, the Ravens can play their comp pick game when Judon signs elsewhere this offseason.

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7. Ladies and gentlemen . . . Pixies!

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