Guessing outrageous San Francisco real estate prices has been a favorite pastime of city residents for years. Prices are anything but predictable — a home could sell for 80% over the asking price or someone might pay $1 million for a burned-out house. Now, Wordle enthusiasts and real estate lookie-loos alike can indulge this urge with a new daily online game.

Listed SF is similar in concept to Wordle (which if you don’t know by now, I’m concerned about you). When you pull up the website, you see one photo from a recently sold real estate listing and based on that one photo alone, you guess how much the home sold for (all homes sold within the prior two weeks).

One wrong guess and it reveals the neighborhood of the listing. Another wrong guess reveals the property type (single-family versus condo). Along the way, Listed SF awards you with an arrow pointed up, down, slightly up or slightly down, indicating how close you’re getting with the dollar amount. A third wrong guess and you get to know how many bedrooms and bathrooms the property has, while a fourth wrong guess will tell you the year it was built. Each subsequent guess reveals more about the property, like square footage and lot size. Players get nine chances to guess, and you must be within 1% of the selling price to win.

Screenshots showing the game play for Listed, which involves guessing the prices of San Francisco homes for sale.

Screenshot via Listed.fun/sf

Once you’re finished, you can even click a link to see the original listing on Redfin. A new listing is released every night at midnight.

One of this week’s listings showed the facade of a classic San Francisco Victorian with a garage framed in blooming, neon pink bougainvillea. It had obviously recently been repainted in the trendy dark gray that many Victorians sport these days, which also indicated to me it probably had been recently renovated inside. I started with a guess of $4 million since I have a black heart. Turns out it wasn’t a bad first guess, and I was given the “slightly lower” arrow, accompanied by a revealing of the neighborhood: the Haight. I went with $3,800,000 next because I got overconfident in my abilities, but now I knew it was for the full single-family home. My third guess of $3,700,000 put me within the winning 1% — $3,725,000 — and my jaded mind went, “that was a good deal for a four-bed, four-and-a-half-bath.”

“It’s just a common pastime to send someone a listing or show them a picture and say, ‘You won’t believe how much this sold for,'” said listed co-founder Matt Claypotch. “The constant trading of interesting real estate listings has been an everpresent unofficial game among our friend group and I think that’s not uncommon.”

Claypotch and co-founder Andrew Pariser have been friends for more than 10 years, both software developers who met in the Bay Area. They’re self-described “puzzle heads,” often tackling a New York Times crossword puzzle when they’re together for fun. Pariser came down with COVID-19 for the second time in August 2022 and said he was tired of Netflix binging while isolating from his family. He called up Potch and said he wanted to build something.

A home sold in San Francisco.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The duo started to brainstorm. Both are big fans of Wordle and especially Heardle, a name-that-tune version of the game that plays seconds of a song at a time until the user guesses the song. They thought the world needed a real estate version of the game.

Pariser said he had a rough prototype up within hours, and then the duo spent the next two weeks refining it and soliciting feedback from family and friends. They started with a national version dubbed “Listed,” where they would choose a ZIP code from somewhere in the country and then pick a listing they found interesting and that had the necessary property information.

Claypotch said he shared it in a chat room to ask for feedback, and one of the people in the group tweeted it, which quickly gave the game a bump in users. Then just a few days later, Chicago news station WGN broadcast a segment about it, building up a big user base in the Midwestern city.

With steady user growth, Claypotch and Pariser decided in October to launch Chicago- and SF-dedicated versions of the site. They don’t have plans to open it up to any additional cities at the moment — though they said New York seems like the next logical location. Further expansion would include moderators in each city to make sure the listings are as exciting as possible.

During the first week of November, there were 4,000 users that played the national listed game and about 1,000 users of each city-specific game. “I think the reason the San Francisco version is so popular is both that we both live here and our networks are here, but naturally the San Francisco market is so hot and such a wild market and there’s an above-average interest here in that, ” Claypotch said.

SFGATE ran its own version of this game, a very not-tech-savvy article that ran almost weekly for more than a year, encouraging readers to guess the prices of rentals across the city. Each week, tens of thousands of readers read the piece.

Since you likely wouldn’t start with the same first guess every time, it’s not quite as easy to nail down a strategy as Wordle, the founders admit. Still, you begin by inferring as much as you can from the photo, and they said they do try and give clues where they can, like a recent Marina del Rey condo in the national game where the ocean was visible out the living room window. Obviously, this condo wasn’t going to be cheap. (It sold for $5.9 million.)

Over the past month, the overall win rate for all three games is nearly 89%, with slightly higher win rates in SF (93%) and Chicago (89%).

The two friends insist they’re just maintaining the site for fun, but if it ends up with an acquisition by the right partner — Wordle was acquired for at least $1 million by the New York Times and Heardle was purchased for an undisclosed sum by Spotify — it would be “a wonderful, unexpected cherry on top.”

As the real estate market continues to cool in an uncertain economy with rising interest rates, Claypotch said it’s a particularly interesting time to play the game. While it was typical to see every listing sell for far over the asking price in San Francisco, now they said they’re seeing more and more homes sell for under the asking price.​​

It’s also put San Francisco real estate prices even more at the forefront of their minds. Pariser purchased a home in San Francisco last year, but Claypotch, who currently lives in Mountain View, said wistfully that homeownership in San Francisco might happen for him “some day.” Until then, he’ll just have to guess real estate prices like everyone else.

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2021 was a wild year for real estate all across the country, but in San Francisco, where real estate has always been a bit wild, the remarkable year was striking. Records were broken and set all across the region, and as we look to 2022, it seems that real estate in the Bay Area will never look like its pre-pandemic self again.

Before we look locally, we should note that nationally, 2021 was an extraordinary, record-setting year. According to Redfin, 2021 home sale prices hit the highest median price of all time. The factors driving this increase were multiple, “The number of homes for sale fell to an all-time low, [and] there was record demand for second homes,” reported Redfin. Combined with historically low interest rates, a new work from home (or anywhere, forever) economy, burgeoning tech industries, and a volatile stock market, there was a never-before-seen national demand for real estate.

In San Francisco, that demand was unsatiable. The typical US home sold for nearly $400,000, up 24.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, that price was $1.5 million.

But it wasn’t just the city proper — the whole Bay Area was in a frenzy. The median sales price of the nine-county region of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma, was $1.3 million ($733 per square foot), according to Norada Real Estate Investments . That’s a 18.2% increase over last November and it was the highest year-over-year gain in California, according to the California Association of Realtors. Bay Area house prices were also up 2% from the previous month (October 2021).

Pushing these prices is record-low inventory across the country, Redfin data shows. There were just 1.38 million homes for sale in June, down 23% year-over-year, which was a historic low. Inventory was down in San Francisco again as well, though historically, inventory has always been tight in the seven-by-seven square mile city.

Likely related to this scarcity, homes flew off the market in record time at record offer prices. Nationally, the average house sold in just 15 days, another historic marker as the lowest median days ever and down from 39 days in June 2020, the Redfin data showed. In San Francisco, homes sold on average in 16 days — and 72.9% of those homes sold above listing price.

The demand for homes has translated into record-breaking (and disturbing) bidding wars, the likes of which the country has never seen.

Data: Redfin

Redfin

This hot demand outpaces the record-breaking offer prices in the rest of the country: 56.5% of homes in the US went for above list price in 2021, up 29.6% from 2020.

Across the country, demand for second homes almost doubled from before the pandemic, up 91% from pre-pandemic levels. In the Bay Area, that demand translated to record prices in places like Tahoe, Santa Cruz, and Hawaii.

The desire for sanctuary put a premium on luxury homes. The median sale price of US luxury homes jumped 26.5% to a price of $990,000 in the second quarter of 2021, which is yet another record in the US In San Francisco, that trend is mirrored: a sharp increase in uber-expensive home sales that started in 2020 kept climbing through 2021.

Luxury homes enjoyed an incredible surge in popularity in SF over the past two years. Image via Compass.

SFGate

2022 probably won’t be much different. Even if interest rates go up, demand is unlikely to go down. “There’s a main trend from 2020 that continued through 2021 and I expect this trend to continue in 2022. That trend is the importance of home, regardless of the price point. Luxury, or not, more people are placing more value in their main residence than ever before,” said Alex Clark, Realtor and Founder of The FrontSteps Real Estate.

Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert.

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English

Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet.

That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco’s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.

The root of this—of course—is the pandemic and the way that it has completely transformed work patterns in the city, hollowing out a downtown core that once accounted for most of San Francisco’s GDP, 70% of its sales tax revenue and 40% of the city’s jobs. And there’s an uneasy feeling among a coalition of business groups that city leaders are sleepwalking into an economic calamity with far-reaching consequences.

Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have fled or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath of commercial landlords are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project ranked the city’s downtown recovery as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.

‘Uncharted Territories’

It’s no secret that office vacancies are high in SF’s downtown. But even as the pandemic wanes, an already-troubling outlook for downtown could only get worse.

That’s because a slew of office leases signed at the height of the city’s economic boom are poised to expire over the next few years, further inflating vacancies and diminishing what the office towers that draw the city’s skyline are worth. There’s currently more than 25 million square feet of commercial space available for lease or sublease in the city, the equivalent of about 35 Transamerica Pyramids sitting empty.

Empty desks in the SD Mayer Accounting firm office on July 29, 2022. | Juliana Yamada/The Standard

“We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,” said Jay Shaffer, a co-founder and principal at Colton Commercial & Partners. “We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.”

Citing data from real estate firm JLL, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan tagged future vacancies, in a worst case scenario, as high as 53% in the Jackson Square area and 43% in the mid-Market area in 2024 as the clock runs out on office leases.

The current vacancy epidemic cuts across buildings of all sizes and price ranges in San Francisco’s downtown core, from the struggling mid-market area to the sparkling office towers of the East Cut.

For example, 415 Natoma, a 653,900 sq foot office tower owned by Brookfield Properties that was the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021, currently has just one announced lease: 20,000 square feet taken by “remote-first” startup thumbtack. Nearby office towers 123 Mission (Juul Labs, Inc.), 50 Fremont (Salesforce.com, Inc.) and 199 Fremont (CalSTRS) were each at least 30% vacant, according to CoStar data, along with a constellation of other big office buildings.

A few large buildings, like 550 California St. and 455 Market St, were placed on the market in recent months at deep discounts to what they would have fetched before the pandemic, but were eventually pulled when offers came in that were even lower than those already discounted prices.

In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said.

One of the entrances to 415 Natoma, the sole ground-up office project to deliver in San Francisco in 2021. | Google Maps

Zombie Buildings

The risk of a San Francisco real estate collapse is palpable enough that it’s caught the attention of at least one Wall Street hedge fund—and not in a good way.

Dan McNamara, founder of New York hedge fund Polpo Capital, became known for the lucrative short bets he made against regional malls run into the ground by e-commerce and Amazon.

Now, McNamara is eyeing the commercial office market for another short bet, and San Francisco is near the top of his list. McNamara started his firm last year to take advantage of what he considers to be mispricings in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market.

“We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”

A report published in November by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that San Francisco could see a short-term decline in commercial property values ​​of up to 43%, the highest projected in the study.

The logic is obvious: San Francisco’s software-dominant economy pivoted easily away from offices during the pandemic, and has little incentive to return.

In some ways, the city is a victim of its own success by creating an economic model so heavily dependent on tech in the aftermath of the Great Recession, said Wade Rose, president of the business advocacy group Advance SF.

“We initiated the growth of an economic sector that could pivot on a dime,” Rose said. “So they closed down fast and exposed this vulnerability.”

Lenders have taken a dim view of the office market and that’s doubly true for slow-to-recover San Francisco, leaving fewer options for refinancing.

“It’s frozen,” McNamara said of current market conditions. “I do believe San Francisco is the most challenging office market today partly due to the fact they became oversupplied very quickly when the model changed to hybrid.”

The properties most at risk are mid- to lower-tier buildings purchased near the peak of the market. Commercial real estate insiders say that those property owners are negotiating with lenders to avoid foreclosure, but that it may be sooner rather than later before the dam starts to break.

McNamara sees refinancing issues leading to defaults, delinquencies and a class of unoccupied “zombie-type buildings.” That may be already starting to happen.

Of the some 200 large properties identified by CoStar as “high vacancy,” at least three have defaulted on their 2021 property tax bills, according to a city tax database. Those include a property at 25 Taylor St. formerly occupied by the coworking firm WeWork, and a 1182 Market St. property formerly owned by the local real estate giant Shorenstein Properties.

Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as half, in some cases.

It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the longer-term impact will be.

“We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It’s a wait-and-see approach right now as we continue to defend the values ​​that we have.”

The Prop. 13 Effect

The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both of which are reliable on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.

Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing property tax rolls in a downturn.

Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.

So see

But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes into a state of permanence.

The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will telecommute 33% of the time when an in-person return to the office stabilizes. That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown Offices are only about 30% full.

Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial security.

“The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse than it is.”

Heads in the sand

rose sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued, budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.

The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a roughly 4% drop in total revenues.

Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a workforce of roughly 35,000.

Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem. Supervisor Catherine Stefani sent a letter of inquiry asking budget officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring workers back downtown.

“Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax structure?” said Safari. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”

Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action, arguing that policymakers must drastically remake downtown into a hub for arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to gather outside of offices.

But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-focused Economic Core Recovery Program was subject to intense scrutiny by the Board of Supervisors before its approval.

When compared to the investment that cities like New York or Chicago are making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely registers.

The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are worried that time is running out.

“It’s within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer days of discomfort you’re going to have.”

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect ownership changes in the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.

English

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US economic conditions are shutting the door on the red-hot residential real estate market in the North Bay, with increasing interest rates contributing to May’s double-digit percentage drop in the region’s home sales, according to the California Association of Realtors.

And this may be just the start of a changing real estate market, thanks in part to interest rates that have doubled since the start of the year.

“The industry was caught very blindsided by that, because all of the mortgage-lending industry and most economists expected mortgage rates to remain in the (3% range) all during this year,” said Nevin Miller, president and CEO of San Rafael- based Pinnacle Loans, which serves Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties, as well as Southern California. “For them to go from 3% to 6% is a shock to the market.”

The current market still favors sellers, he noted, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t reacting, even with all-time low inventory.

“Sellers who have now got a ton of equity because homes have appreciated so much are rushing to put their home on the market before the market changes, which it is doing now,” Miller said.

In the North Bay, year-over-year property sales in May were down in several counties, according to the agent association. Sonoma County home sales dropped by 22.8% to 385 homes sold; Napa County 12.1% to 102 homes; and Marin County, 10.1% to 178 homes, CAR reported. Solano County sales, however, rose 5.8% to 328 homes sold in May.

This wasn’t surprising to CAR Deputy Chief Economist Oscar Wei, who noted that Solano is the most affordable county in the Bay Area and North Bay.

Insights and cash

In Sonoma Valley, while large overbids on homes have not been unusual, with three-quarters of offers coming in all-cash, the buying frenzy reached out to traditionally more affordable areas of the county, said Duane Margreiter, sales manager for Century 21 NorthBay Alliance in Sonoma. One of his properties was a $1 million home in Windsor, where overbids had previously gone as high as asking $25,000 over, and that property sold for $75,000 over.

“We’re seeing a shift in the market,” Margreiter said. “Buyers are taking a different look. They’re realizing that they do not need to put in an offer on the first thing they see.”

While the rise in interest rates is likely to initially price out first-time homebuyers, overall it likely will result in a shift to a more balanced market, rather than a crash like in 2005 to 2012, when the Great Recession had a wave of foreclosures , Margreiter said.

Patricia Oxman, a 30-year real estate veteran and top producer for Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty, said the Marin County market data she tracks suggests local entry-level buyers have already pulled back so far this year, but higher-priced homes continue to be selling.

Sales of single-family homes in Marin County are down 17%, with 1,120 changing hands so far this year, compared with 1,346 in the same time frame last year. Home sales under $1 million have dropped to 72 from 145 a year ago. Sales of mid-range homes ($2 million to $4 million) moved down to 48% of all sales from 54% last year, while top-end homes (over $4 million) now make up 46% of sales, up from 34% a year ago.

“The luxury market is still strong because buyers pulled money out in anticipation of the purchase, and 28% of our sales are all cash,” Oxman said.

Gerrett Snedaker, broker and partner with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate-Wine Country Group, said he’s seen “a decrease in multiple offers and selling homes in excess of asking prices.” The firm has multiple offices in Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino counties.

In May, 16% of homes in the three counties sold at reduced prices, and by late June that proportion is 19%, in line with the level from a year before, according to Snedaker. And the share of homes selling for over the asking price was 55% in May, 44% through late June and 52% a year before.

Market influences

The changing market conditions have already started to reduce prices on listings.

Just over 9% of Sonoma County listings experienced a price cut in May, compared with 6.9% in April and 4.9% in March, Zillow reported. About the same percentage of sellers lowered their prices in neighboring Napa County, in contrast to reductions in April at 7.1% and 6.3% in March. To the west in Marin County, 6.8% of listings were lowered, versus 5.1% in April and 4.9% in March.

Much of this trend is due to “rising interest rates on the back of the incredible price appreciation in recent years,” Zillow spokesman Matt Kreamer pointed out, adding: “People are being priced out.”

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The House:

608 Sanchez St in San Francisco

What makes it unique:

Designed by noted Bay Area architect Violeta Autumn, this three-bedroom, multi-level property in San Francisco may look as though it was plucked off a street in nearby Sausalito. Autumn designed her own Sausalito home in a similar “organic architectural” style, a philosophy of design coined by Frank Lloyd Wright that refers to buildings that are integrated with — and often inspired by — their natural surroundings. This home, just steps away from San Francisco’s Mission Dolores Park, seeks to do that with wood paneling and floor-to-ceiling windows that give out onto 360-degree views of the city. The home is the upper unit in a two-condo building, with a unique spiral staircase connecting its floors, multiple fireplaces, and plenty of outdoor and rooftop areas well suited for entertaining. With such unique features, the listing garnered plenty of interest, even though it came during a bit of a lull in the San Francisco real estate market. Even before the recent surge in mortgage rates and stock market pullback, there was a noticeable slowdown in the market beginning in early May, said City Real Estate real estate agent Lily Johnson, who listed 608 Sanchez. “It’s going to be a slow summer for SF,” said Johnson, who added that if agents were used to getting more than 10 offers on properties, they’re now lucky to get just a few. Many buyers now are exhausted by the prospect of bidding wars, and some sellers are being encouraged to pause on listing their properties until the fall. Those dynamics are paving the way for what may be more of a buyer’s market than it has been in some time, at least for a few months. Still, these trends did not keep home shoppers from checking out 608 Sanchez, which saw 200 people come through its first open house and had 45 disclosure packages out.

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Remote workers no longer tethered to an office are settling in mid-sized cities across the nation, creating new opportunities and headaches for real estate developers and the cities themselves. More than 12 percent of moves between April 2020 and December 2021 were caused by COVID-19, as remote workers have flocked to smaller cities with lower costs of living, lower taxes, and fewer pandemic health restrictions, according to a recent study by professors at Vanderbilt University and the Georgia Institute of Technology.

The study analyzed 360,000 residential interstate moves from the last five years, finding that 70 percent of people citing remote work as the reason for their move earn more than $100,000 annually. Superstar cities in huge coastal metro areas like New York and San Francisco aren’t going away, but they’re losing enough people to impact their tax base.

Much of this migration is caused by highly paid tech workers, as the tech sector grew by 47 percent and added 1.2 million jobs between 2010 and 2019. About half the job creation occurred in eight areas, including San Francisco; San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; Boston; andSeattle. But some mid-size cities are also adding tech jobs at a clip of 3 percent or more annually, including Atlanta, Dallas, and Kansas City, Missouri.

All of these migration trends are undoubtedly in the minds of real estate investors. It’s no secret that mid-sized and smaller cities have seen population booms as more people have flocked to the suburbs and the Sun Belt, especially over the past two decades. The pandemic and remote work have added fuel to the fire. The investment outlook for the Sun Belt, suburbs, and smaller and mid-sized cities is increasingly attractive. Company office re-locations and satellite offices in these areas will likely keep growing.

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“[O]ne impact of the pandemic appears to be far more metropolitan areas where the real estate market looks increasingly like San Francisco’s,” according to an article by Kellie Hwang for the San Francisco Chronicle [paywall].

Hwang is sharing a recent analysis by the Chronicle that used Zillow data to catalog the US metropolitan areas experiencing “significant increases in home values ​​and decreasing housing inventory over the pandemic.”

“In our data analysis, we narrowed down the list to areas where home values ​​rose 40% or more from Jan. 2020 to Jan. 2022, inventory from the same time period fell by 40% or more, and inventory is now at two homes or fewer per 1,000 people,” explains Hwang.

“Two years into the pandemic, the US housing market is virtually unrecognizable from before, with nearly half the number of homes for sale, prices a third higher and rising.” —Zillow spokesperson Tyrone Law

“What we found was a mix of both large and smaller metro areas whose housing markets have become less affordable and scarcer over the past two years.”

The list might surprise: Missoula, Montana; Port Angeles, Washington; Provo, UT; Oak Harbor, Washington; Salt Lake City, UT; Raleigh, NC; Merced, California; San Diego, California; Bellingham, Washington; and Helena Montana.

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The latest North Bay Business Journal research (Lists.NorthBayBusinessJournal.com) focuses on firms that market and negotiate transactions on income-producing real property.

This list of commercial real estate brokerages is ranked by number of commercial agents in the North Bay, then by total local staff. Additional information includes square foot managed, 2021 North Bay Commission volume for leases or sales, top North Bay transactions in 2021, services offered, top five agents and managing brokers.

Detailed information from the list is available for purchase as a spreadsheet via the links above.

Want to have your company surveyed for this and other lists? Contact Research Director Michelle Fox at michelle.fox@busjrnl.com or call 707-526-8682.

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San Francisco’s real estate market is notorious for obvious reasons: home prices nearly doubled in a decade, with not enough new housing being built to keep up with demand.

But the city’s affordability crisis might not be so very unique going forward: one impact of the pandemic appears to be far more metropolitan areas where the real estate market looks increasingly like San Francisco’s.

According to a Chronicle data analysis, there are at least 10 metro areas that could soon become “the next San Francisco” in terms of housing affordability and availability, including San Diego, Raleigh, NC, and two areas in Montana.

“Two years into the pandemic, the US housing market is virtually unrecognizable from before, with nearly half the number of homes for sale, prices a third higher and rising,” said Zillow spokesperson Tyrone Law in an email. “Basic supply and demand principles are the primary driver of current housing market conditions.”

What’s driving the national trends?

Home prices in unexpected areas have shot up in the past two years, leading to housing scarcity as people left big cities in search of more space and cheaper prices in suburban and rural areas.

Nationally, home values ​​accelerated in January by a record 20% in annual gain, and inventory dropped to a record low of 42% over the same period, according to Zillow. When looking at the two year period between Feb. 2020 to Feb. 2022, the values ​​are even more shocking: inventory is down 48% and home values ​​are up 32%, said Zillow’s Law.

He said a main factor driving up home prices is the inventory shortage from more than a decade of underbuilding after the Great Recession, as well as competition for homes among millennials and baby boomers. Low mortgage rates and more people able to work remotely during the pandemic has “supercharged demand.”

A real estate agent stands in front of a home in suburban Salt Lake City.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press 2019

In San Francisco, underbuilding started long before the Great Recession. The dearth of new home building – particularly affordable and multi-family housing — has been a problem for decades, in part due to the city’s strict zoning regulations and difficult approval process.

The typical home value in the San Francisco metro area in Jan. 2022 was just under $1.4 million, second in the nation to San Jose, and the inventory rate is 0.11% (inventory refers to the number of homes for sale), making it 32nd in the nation out of 917 regions, according to Zillow housing data. From Jan 2010 to Jan 2020, San Francisco’s home values ​​nearly doubled at 90%, and from Jan 2015 to Jan 2020, they jumped 39%.

We wanted to see specifically which US metro areas have experienced significant increases in home values ​​and decreasing housing inventory over the pandemic, using Zillow’s data for metropolitan areas.

In our data analysis, we narrowed down the list to areas where home values ​​rose 40% or more from Jan. 2020 to Jan. 2022, inventory from the same time period fell by 40% or more, and inventory is now at two homes or fewer per 1,000 people. Inventory data was not available for every metro area, so about a dozen or so were left out of the data analysis.

What we found was a mix of both large and smaller metro areas whose housing markets have become less affordable and scarcer over the past two years.

The next San Francisco?

Two California metros appear on the list: Merced and San Diego. Housing inventory declined nearly 50% during the pandemic in Merced, with an average of about 1.5 homes per 1,000 people. Typical home values ​​increased about 42% there from Jan 2020 to Jan 2022.

Matt Kreamer, a data spokesperson for Zillow, said the attraction to Merced and other parts of the San Joaquin and Central valleys is in large part due to people exiting the Bay Area in search of more affordability and space.

“I think that’s why Merced makes this list, and I’d be surprised if other Central Valley cities from Sacramento to Fresno aren’t close behind,” he wrote in an email. “For years now as the Bay Area has become more unaffordable, we’ve seen shoppers from there looking at homes in the Sacramento area especially.”

Kreamer called San Diego the “hottest major market in California,” and one of the top in the country.

“Home values ​​there have risen 44% in the past two years, compared to 25.8% in the Bay Area,” he said. “Prices are still lower than in Los Angeles, but have quickly caught up as people have turned to it as the less expensive Southern California option for sun and year-round outdoor living.”

Also on the list are several cities in Washington state that are outside of the pricey Seattle metro area with “more affordable home prices and natural beauty.” Salt Lake City also appears on the list, along with Provo that sits south of the big city and is home to Brigham Young University.

Missoula, MT has seen its housing market skyrocket during the pandemic, with home values ​​increasing and inventory declining, according to an analysis of Zillow data.

Courtesy of Shannon Hilliard

Where the trends are most extreme

The metro area with the most extreme values ​​in each category was another college town, Missoula in Montana, the second largest metro area population in the state of just under 118,000.

“People have more freedom than ever to live their preferences, and it’s safe to say that a fair share of people who worked in downtown big-city offices preferred a more rural or smaller-town life that they couldn’t have before, and can now,” Kreamer said. “And it doesn’t take a ton of movement to move the needle on data in some of these smaller cities.”

From Jan. 2020 to Jan. 2022, housing inventory in the metro declined 58% with about 1.4 homes per 1,000 people on average. Home values ​​shot up 57% during the pandemic.

Shannon Hilliard, a broker and partner for Ink Realty Group who has been in the Missoula real estate market for 17 years, said according to data collected by the Missoula Organization of Realtors, the median single family home price increased about 45% from the end of 2019 to the end of 2021.

A home in Missoula, MT

Courtesy of Shannon Hilliard

The data shows the median home sale price was over $480,000 with an average of 75 days on market in 2021, compared to a median price of $332,000 and an average of 93 days on market in 2020.

“I have a listing that last week got 17 offers, and 17 isn’t healthy,” she said. “A healthy market is six months of inventory, and right now we’re under a month of inventory based on demand.”

In fact, the state data shows there was around 2.5 months of supply at the end of 2019, with a gradual increase throughout the pandemic. The latest estimate was nearly three weeks of supply in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Hilliard isn’t surprised by the growing interest in living in Missoula, a place that she called “awesome.” Home to the University of Montana, the city flanked by beautiful mountain ranges and scenic national parks. And, like many places across the country during the pandemic, more people who aren’t tethered to office jobs have been drawn to Missoula.

“When people have the ability to bring their incomes to a place they’ve always wanted to live, where price was a prohibiting factor before,” she said, adding that it opens up the possibilities, including beautiful places like Missoula that offer plenty of outdoor activities, a “vibrant downtown” and a mix of “gritty” and “luxury.”

She’s had clients all across the board, from families looking for bigger homes, retirees wanting to downsize, or first-time home buyers. While she doesn’t have concrete data, Hilliard said anecdotally she’s seen people move from Washington, Texas, California and Colorado. And many people buying homes are in-state who are looking to make a life change, or people who grew up or went to school in Missoula and have finally found a way to return.

But the housing demand and rising costs has priced out the previously affordable city for many people. Hilliard said she is not optimistic for clients looking to spend $300,000 on a home, and even the rental market is tough. Plus, because Missoula is the intersection of five valleys, there is not much room for sprawl, which limits the housing supply further. Hilliard doesn’t think this is changing any time soon.

“I think with the world changing and many people able to work for higher paying corporations, they can live where they want to be,” she said. “I think it will keep going for a little bit.”

Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com

The post 10 actual property markets on cusp of San Francisco-style housing disaster appeared first on Los Gatos News And Events.

Research objective

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The Global Automotive HVAC Market analysis report is the outcome of incessant efforts guided by knowledgeable forecasters, innovative analysts and brilliant researchers. With the specific and state-of-the-art information provided in this report, businesses can get idea about the types of consumers, consumer’s demands and preferences, their perspectives about the product, their buying intentions, their response to particular product, and their varying tastes about the specific product which is already present in the market. By providing an absolute overview of the market, Automotive HVAC Market report covers various aspects of market analysis, product definition, market segmentation, key developments, and the existing vendor landscape.

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COVID-19 coverage

The study emphasizes the worldwide pandemic after an offshoot caused by the disruption of the supply networks. COVID essentially has a substantial market effect in terms of sales, since over xx% of unit sales are basically impeded by the interruption in manufacturers” shipping capacity particularly due to really high locking standards and rising security problems. The country’s closure of businesses and the lack of accessible work have made it difficult for industries to continue. With easy lockdowns and relaxations, supply finished meeting demand in the following months. In the following months and projected term, companies are basically very likely to gain momentum.

Automotive HVAC Market Report Scope

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players covered,

• Air International Thermal Systems
• Brose GmbH & Co.
• Valeo S.A
• Toyota Industries Corporation
• Sanden Corporation
• Keihin Corporation
• Johnson Electric
• Gentherm Inc.
• Denso Corporation
• Delphi Automotive LLP
• Calsonic Kansei Corporation
• Japan Climate Systems Corporation
• Visteon Corporation

segmentation

The study includes all sorts of segments, ranging from regional segmentation, geographical sector, product type division, end-user segmentation and application segmentation. These segments have been produced after thorough research into diverse geographical characteristics and circumstances, and economic conditions, or so they thought. product segmentation, the yy product segment has more than a percentage point of revenue in the top 2022, a dominance that is literally expected to generally persist over the forecast period. Around a percentage of all sales were in the other alternative sector.

Automotive HVAC Market Segmentation:

Global Automotive HVAC Market: Type Segment Analysis

• heating system
• cooling system

Global Automotive HVAC Market: Application Segment Analysis

• Passenger cars
• LCVs (light commercial vehicles)
• HCVs (Heavy Commercial Vehicles)

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Global Automotive HVAC Market Regional Outlook:

• North America (US, Canada, Mexico)
• Europe (UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Central & Eastern Europe, CIS)
• Asia Pacific (China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, India, Rest of Asia Pacific)
• Latin America (Brazil, Rest of LA)
• Middle East And Africa(Turkey, GCC, Rest of Middle East)

Competitive Landscape

The Automotive HVAC sector has seen competition rise, with supply and demand in the definitely last decade on a rising trend. This research analyzes in depth the existence, relative sizes, product range, and market positions of various small, medium, and micro companies in the industry on multiple scales in pre-and post-pandemic conditions, which is fairly significant. The study also gives an overview of the strategy of competitors regarding business and corporate offices. The study also discusses the operations, technical infrastructure, marketing and financial capacities. The study therefore basically offers shareholders and stakeholders a very excellent knowledge of the market from a global point of view.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

• Market Penetration: Provides comprehensive information on the market offered by the key players
• Market Development: Provides in-depth information about lucrative emerging markets and analyze penetration across mature segments of the markets
• Market Diversification: Provides detailed information about new product launches, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments
• Competitive Assessment & Intelligence: Provides an exhaustive assessment of market shares, strategies, products, certification, regulatory approvals, patent landscape, and manufacturing capabilities of the leading players
• Product Development & Innovation: Provides intelligent insights on future technologies, R&D activities, and breakthrough product developments

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