HCountless San Franciscans lined the streets on Sunday – phones drawn and ready – to watch a unique procession slowly moving through the city. “Ladies and gentlemen, please stand on the sidewalk,” yelled a police spokesman. “There’s a house coming down the street.”

Known as the Englander House, the two-story, 5,170-square-foot green Victorian building had lived in the heart of San Francisco for more than a century. But for years it stood empty and fell into disrepair, wedged behind a gas station and towered over by new residential buildings. The city, suffering from housing shortages, was ready to erect a 48-unit building in its place.

But instead of tearing down the beautiful building, the teams lifted it from the foundation, put it on wheels, and heaved it into a new home six blocks away. Arborists, town workers, and excited onlookers joined the parade through sharp turns and tight gaps with balconies and light poles as the six-bedroom house advanced at a speed of no more than 1.5 km / h.

Englander House was relocated to a new location about six blocks away. Photo: Noah Berger / APCarla Schlemminger and Corrina Chow pose for a photo in front of the house. Photo: Brittany Hosea-Small / Reuters

The move, which cost owner Tim Brown around $ 400,000 (£ 280,000), was no easy task. According to the San Francisco Historical Society, it was the first time a Victorian had been relocated in around 50 years – but it is certainly not the first time at all. San Francisco has a long history of building relocation, often in similarly dramatic ways.

In the 1970s, 12 houses were relocated from the western addition of the city. Dave Glass documented the process. Photo: Dave Glass

As early as 1886, Samuel Clemens – better known by his pseudonym Mark Twain – mockingly reported about an unfortunate move for the local newspaper Daily Morning Call, as Andrew Chamings of SFGate noted in an article about the history of the house moving late last year. “An old house broke out of its berth last night and drifted down Sutter Street toward Montgomery,” the author wrote, adding that “the tramp’s two-story half-timbered house has been wandering listlessly on Commercial Street for several days.”

Back then, horses had to do the hauling. The crews used boards, ties, and oiled boards to slowly drag the houses over the hills of San Francisco. It seems like a difficult way to go, but Diane C. Donovan, who detailed the centuries of relocation in her book San Francisco Relocated, found it to be a fairly common practice. Some houses were even brought into town by ship before being transported across town.

The city’s most famous move – and probably the largest – took place in the 1970s when 12 Victorian homes were saved from demolition during the San Francisco Western Addition redevelopment plan. Two decades earlier, the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency had set out to evacuate an entire community and build new homes that would attract wealthy residents. Western Addition’s neighborhoods, home to mostly black and immigrant families, were about to be demolished in what is now considered one of the most egregious acts of gentrification. In the end, more than 800 stores were closed and 4,729 households had to leave their homes. Around 2,500 Victorian houses were demolished.

Around 2,500 Victorian homes were demolished, but 12 were saved. Photo: Dave GlassA worker signals a truck driver pulling Englander House through San Francisco on Sunday. Photo: Noah Berger / AP

But 12 were spared. As public anger grew over the wiping out of the Victorians from the city, the redevelopment agency agreed to auction some of the homes and move them out of the area.

“It was like moving a herd of giant elephants – and about the same speed,” said Carlo Middione, a former redevelopment officer, in a video of the experience published by FoundSF, a local history organization. The project lasted almost a month.

“People who lived nearby opened their windows and saw a large Victorian house go by,” said Glass. Photo: Dave Glass

“It was a big spectacle,” says Dave Glass, a photographer whose parents emigrated from Poland and raised him in Western Addition. They moved to the Sunset District on the beach when his childhood home was demolished. Years later he documented the resettlement of the rescued houses. “People who lived nearby opened their windows and saw a large Victorian house go by. It was really something to see. “

The Englander House makes its way through San Francisco. Photo: Noah Berger / APThe process hasn’t changed much, Glass said. Photo: Dave Glass

Glass was out and about last weekend watching the Englander House move through town. The process, he said, hasn’t changed much. But he thinks has the feeling. He complained that the structures had not been valued in the past few decades. “People didn’t care about the Victorian houses,” he said, noting that while dozens have been preserved, thousands have been destroyed. “Now they are valued.”

Glass hopes it stays that way, so that the San Franciscans take enough pride in the city’s history and aesthetics to protect the Victorians – even if that takes great strides. “We have these tall, ornate redwood buildings,” he said. “Nobody else has that.”

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San Francisco’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign is nearing the top benchmark of 70% of eligible residents who are fully vaccinated – which, according to some experts, puts the city on the path to being the first in the US to achieve herd immunity.

The city’s vaccine tracker showed that by Wednesday, 79% of residents 12 and older had received at least one dose of vaccine and 69% had been fully vaccinated.

The definition of herd immunity varies, but experts generally say that at least 70% of the population must be immune, either through vaccination or natural infection, in order for the virus to stop spreading. Some put the percentage at 80 to 90%.

If San Francisco achieved herd immunity, coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths could be reduced to almost insignificant levels. If an unvaccinated person brought the virus into the city from elsewhere, it would not lead to an uncontrollable outbreak.

Bob Wachter, chairman of the UCSF medical division, tweeted Tuesday that with San Francisco reporting about 12 new cases daily and reaching such high vaccination rates, “could be the first US city to achieve herd immunity,” citing a Guardian story about this possibility.

San Francisco @ 12 new cases / day, in a city of ~ 900K. 79% of people> 12 years of age received at least one injection, 68% were fully vaccinated. Bottom Line: We may be the first U.S. city to achieve herd immunity, as @guardian described. @PCH_SF & George Rutherford @UCSF cited. https://t.co/ZFl2Y6GrDx

– Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) June 9, 2021

In an email to The Chronicle on Wednesday, Wachter said coronavirus cases can still invade any community unless the whole world reaches herd immunity so that eradication of the virus is impossible.

“But I think the possibility that such a case will cause significant spread and community-wide rise is nil in San Francisco and the Bay Area,” he said.

“San Francisco has very high levels of immunity (mostly from vaccinations, with a little extra immunity from previous infection), which is putting significant downward pressure on both new cases and the spread of cases that enter our community.” he wrote.

“Whether we refer to this as ‘herd immunity’ or acknowledge that the term is really short for the much more complex idea that we are strongly protected from COVID surges is not that clinically or scientifically relevant.”

Dr. Infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi at UCSF said Wednesday that San Francisco’s high vaccination rate and persistently low case numbers suggest the city may achieve coveted herd immunity status.

“I think we are well on our way to being the first city to achieve herd immunity,” she said. “This happened in Israel, which has now fully reopened after an initial vaccination rate of 81% and, despite the free mixing of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, still has no increased cases. Due to our high immunity, we are not prone to new infections even when traveling here. “

In a webinar on Tuesday about San Francisco’s approach to reopening the state on June 15, health officer Dr. Susan Philip points out that vaccination rates in the city are so high that even unvaccinated people are fairly well protected when resuming daily personal activities – which is a key element of herd immunity.

Still, San Francisco and the Bay Area are not a bubble, and some experts say herd immunity may never actually be achieved. Philip said last month that San Francisco “doesn’t think about herd immunity” in the sense of reaching a certain percentage that will cause the virus to go away. Instead, the focus is on “finding another way to live with the virus”.

John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, said he would prefer to focus less on the idea of ​​herd immunity as it is a “moving target”, especially with the Delta variant which is very contagious seems and gives increasing cause for concern the world.

He said the percentage of herd immunity can go up or down: when a community is locked down and human interaction is minimal, it decreases. If the California economy reopens on June 15, the target percentage could potentially rise.

“We should use this concept to find out how we are doing and how the virus is behaving,” he said.

Swartzberg said using the R-effective, which represents the average number of people an infected person is likely to pass the virus to, is a helpful measure for indicating whether a community is nearing herd immunity. The goal is for the R-rms value to drop well below 1.

The California coronavirus dashboard showed an R-Effect of 0.81 for San Francisco on Wednesday.

Swartzberg said he wasn’t interested in the number of herd immunity, but “how many people are vaccinated, how well the vaccines work, how cautious people are, and most importantly, how many new cases per 100,000 we have?” see, or how many hospitalizations we see. If these numbers go down, those are the numbers that matter to me. “

When asked Wednesday about the achievement of vaccination milestones, the San Francisco Department of Public Health sent the following statement:

“While we are encouraged that San Francisco has very high vaccination rates, reaching a certain percentage of people vaccinated doesn’t mean the end of COVID. There are some populations who continue to be susceptible to the virus, including communities with lower vaccination rates as well as people who are ineligible for vaccines, such as children under the age of 12. Therefore, ongoing vaccination efforts and close tracking of COVID cases are required. “

The department said rising vaccination rates are likely to help the virus become a “manageable threat that could continue circulating in the United States for years to come” and will still result in hospital admissions and deaths, albeit in fewer numbers.

Kellie Hwang is a contributor to the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @KellieHwang

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San Francisco may be the first major American city to achieve herd immunity to the coronavirus, experts say.

San Francisco is still recording a low number of coronavirus cases, around 13.7 per day, said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology at the University of California at San Francisco, but they don’t seem to be getting enough foothold in the population to cause major outbreaks.

“This is what herd immunity looks like,” said Rutherford. “You will have isolated cases, but they will not spread.”

Health officials still disagree on what percentage of the population needs to be immune to Covid-19 in order to achieve the much-touted “herd immunity” status when so many people have antibodies to the virus that it is not far about the virus can spread community.

Throughout the pandemic, vaccination goals to achieve herd immunity have been a moving goal, according to a briefing from the Yale School of Medicine, with experts initially estimating that if 60 to 70% of the population were immune, the virus would be difficult to spread . With multiple variants floating around, some of which are more contagious, estimates are rising. Many experts now estimate that herd immunity is achieved when 80 to 90 percent of the residents are vaccinated.

San Francisco was close to that goal. Nearly 80% of San Francisco residents eligible for the coronavirus vaccine have had at least one vaccination, and 68% are fully vaccinated, according to the city health department. Among the total population, Asians and Pacific islanders have vaccination rates even higher than the city average, statistics show, while the black population lags behind by about 16 percentage points.

Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UCSF deputy dean specializing in infectious diseases, believes San Francisco already has enough residents with antibodies, considering those who have received immunity from the coronavirus to achieve herd immunity. But he said the virus is unlikely to ever go away completely in the US.

“I hope people still go out and get vaccinated and not rest on their laurels,” he said. “The virus will always be something to think about.”

San Francisco has several advantages in its pursuit of herd immunity, noted Rutherford. The city has few children compared to other places, so a larger percentage of residents are eligible for the vaccine. The population was thrilled with following the Covid safety measures and finding the vaccine. And it has compact geography with a dense community spanning 47 square miles that has allowed teams of health workers to go door-to-door to reach closings and others who may be struggling to get vaccinated.

“San Francisco has developed a national model for equitable distribution of vaccines,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, director of the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management, in a statement announcing the program last month. “The door-to-door vaccine and delivering this life-saving service to the elderly and the disabled who are at home will help get San Francisco through the last mile of our vaccination program.”

Chin-Hong noted that the city’s history of being at the forefront of the fight against the AIDS virus may also have instilled a confidence in health policies that other regions lack.

“San Francisco has a long history of openness and integration of academics and public health into its community and politics,” he said. “Northern California was very pro-vaccine and wearing masks was popular here too.”

A handful of counties across the country have even higher vaccination rates than San Francisco. This includes Hamilton County, New York, where 75% of eligible residents were fully vaccinated, according to an analysis of data maintained by the New York Times. But none of these counties is home to a major city.

The state of California preparing to meet most of its Covid restrictions on 15th Angeles Times. The state has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, but it still lags behind 11 states, including Vermont, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.

However, Chin-Hong said the fact that California also had a major Covid-19 outbreak this winter means the number of immunized residents in the state is particularly high.

“California is something like the Covid-Safehouse of the United States at the moment,” he said. “If you look at the burden of disease, this is one of the safest places.”

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SAN FRANCISCO – Adam Bergeron is excited to reopen the Balboa Theater, the independent San Francisco cinema that he owns and operates.

He has watched other cinemas in the US take the audience back in front of them. But San Francisco reopened more slowly than other cities. Now the time feels right.

“San Francisco was a role model for getting Covid right, if there is such a thing,” said Bergeron.

“At this point, everyone I know is fully vaccinated. Cases are falling. And we just picked a time that seemed like the right time,” he added. He plans to reopen May 14th with a “Godzilla” marathon.

Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

San Francisco and its suburbs were cautious and maintained various restrictions while other parts of the country reopened businesses and eased masking mandates. The vaccination rate is now among the highest of any major US city. Two thirds of all adults have received at least one dose.

And as parts of the city open up – some bars in San Francisco have waiting lists to get a table again – experts are showing cautious optimism. The city may see signs of herd immunity.

“This is our moment to leave the pandemic behind,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco’s director of health. “It is clear that the vaccines are our way out.”

Herd immunity is about transmission. When not enough people can catch and spread a virus, especially in a community where cases are already low, the virus struggles to find new hosts. Eventually, of course, infections would subside. It’s a simple concept, but it can be elusive and difficult to define – especially at the national level.

However, it may be clearer on site. In the past seven days, San Francisco, which was home to more than 870,000 people, had an average of just 26 new Covid-19 cases per day. Two-thirds of all adults in San Francisco and nearly 60 percent of the larger metropolitan area of ​​4.7 million were vaccinated with at least one dose – one of the highest rates in the United States. The positive test rate is 1.2 percent.

All over San Francisco, there are signs that residents are beginning to relax, at least slightly, their emergency arrangements and be rewarded with vaccinations. Some people go maskless on walks outdoors – a rare sight until recently – while small gatherings such as running and cycling clubs have resumed and gym yoga and other fitness classes have resumed. With applause from the city, the main branch of the city library reopened for browsing on Monday, and the city could enter California’s “yellow tier” – the least restrictive pandemic level – this week.

And there are signs that the city is preparing for a long-term reopening. Kevin Carroll, executive director of the San Francisco Hotel Council, a trading group serving the city’s hospitality industry, said the majority of San Francisco’s 34,000 hotel rooms are expected to be open by the end of May. More downtown offices, including the big tech companies, are about to return. Salesforce, the software company that occupies San Francisco’s tallest skyscraper, is aiming to reopen its headquarters this month, spokeswoman Annie Vincent said.

It is estimated that between 70 and 85 percent of a city’s population must be immune to achieve herd immunity, but that number can be a moving target. A better indication is whether the number of cases and hospitalizations in a city is falling to a low level and staying so with few restrictions, said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease doctor and professor of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco.

San Francisco has had the advantage of speeding up its vaccination campaign, while cases, hospitalizations, and daily deaths are already relatively low, which most likely accounts for much of the city’s success to date. Last winter, when much of the country was grappling with a devastating wave, cases in San Francisco peaked on January 4, with 560 infections reported. For comparison: Los Angeles peaked on December 26th with more than 29,000 new cases.

Vaccines can help bring these numbers down, but how quickly this happens depends largely on the local situation. In places where cases are increasing, scientists have observed a tipping point in vaccinations. After that, hospital admissions and deaths begin to drop dramatically.

“It appeared to be 40 to 50 percent at the first dose rate,” said Gandhi. “After that, things started to decline.”

There are currently 15 people hospitalized in San Francisco for Covid-19, which is roughly less than 2 per 100,000 people. While there isn’t a magic number, Gandhi said it is these types of low hospital stay rates that health officials monitor to make sure a city is on the right track.

In March 2020, San Francisco became the first city in the country to issue mandatory on-site accommodation in response to the pandemic. And the city has maintained other stringent mitigation practices that have helped the city “hit back three waves,” according to Colfax, San Francisco’s health director.

Colfax also recognized the widespread acceptance of the city’s public health interventions for this advancement.

“That culture and public health support and public health infrastructure are deeply ingrained in San Francisco, largely because of our response to the HIV / AIDS epidemic,” he said. “It’s anchored in our cultural DNA.”

But the real test is likely to come this week when the city starts lifting some of its restrictions.

“The final test when you achieve herd immunity is not to be on lockdown and not having mitigation procedures in place,” Gandhi said. “The way we could tell we got herd immunity with measles is because people were out and mixing and people didn’t get sick and children weren’t hospitalized with severe measles.”

However, herd immunity is not a set target and the threshold can vary depending on a number of factors including population dynamics. Reaching herd immunity also does not automatically guarantee that the coronavirus will simply go away. For example, even though more than 90 percent of the US population has received a measles vaccine, outbreaks can still occur.

Hence, herd immunity should not be seen as an end goal, said Dr. Julie Parsonnet, Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health at Stanford University.

“It’s not permanent, and just because we’ve achieved herd immunity doesn’t mean there won’t be any cases,” Parsonnet said. “Herd immunity is a good construct for modeling, but not for life.”

There is also a risk of developing a variant of the virus that escapes the protection of vaccines. There is no evidence that this has happened so far, but if it did it could jeopardize the protection that communities have built.

And while pockets of land like San Francisco may already have reached a level of immunity that can lift most major restrictions, it can take the entire country a long time to get there – if it ever does. But that doesn’t mean that the lockdowns will last for years or that life can’t go on.

“If we get to a point where the coronavirus isn’t making people very sick, we’re in good shape,” Parsonnet said. “If we don’t get herd immunity as a nation, we will still protect vulnerable people with vaccines and hopefully not have hospitalizations.”

While San Francisco is the first major U.S. city to appear to have lost control of the pandemic, others are likely not far behind.

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More than 46 percent of people in New York City have received at least one dose of vaccine, and cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are steadily declining. Los Angeles County, considered the epicenter of the U.S. pandemic less than five months ago, saw no new deaths from Covid-19 on Sunday and Monday. 54 percent of residents have received at least one dose of vaccine, and it is among several California counties planning to lift restrictions this week.

In other parts of the country, smaller cities such as Albuquerque, New Mexico; Portland, Maine; and San Diego are seeing similar encouraging progress.

“It is deeply hopeful,” said Gandhi. “The vaccines have put us in a whole new world.”

Denise Chow reported from New York City; David Ingram reported from San Francisco.

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