In California overall, prices dropped year-over-year, as sales collapsed, supply more than doubled. No dear, this isn’t just a seasonal dip.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

San Francisco and Silicon Valley are now in the solid leadership role of the housing bust playing out in California with sales collapsing and prices heading south from the peak in April at an astonishing pace.

Just about everything that could come together came together. After a two-year outflux of workers due to working from anywhere, there came the collapse of the startup and crypto scenes, starting in 2021 and continuing unabated, leading to the early entries into my pantheon of Imploded Stocks. In early 2022 came the spike in mortgage rates. In mid-2022 came the downturn in employment at Big Tech. By that time, the Fed had been hiking its policy rates relentlessly, and Quantitative Tightening had kicked off. This was punctuated over the past two months by the chaotic dismantling of the workforce at Twitter and its ecosystem.

Local budgets have fallen into deep deficits – although most are still flush with cash from the pandemic funds received from the federal government and the state.

Vacant office space that is on the market for lease and sublease continues to balloon, while landlords have started to file for huge reductions in assessment values ​​to lower their property taxes, which is going to cut revenues further.

This comes garnished by stories in the New York Times that Twitter stopped paying rent on its leased office spaces, and that it was instructed not to pay vendors. At least one of those unpaid vendors – a Silicon Valley company whose software Twitter had licensed – filed a lawsuit last week in the San Francisco Superior Court for nonpayment. It stated, “shortly after Musk’s purchase of Twitter closed, Twitter refused to pay the outstanding quarterly invoice, which was due on November 30, 2022, and Twitter disclaimed any obligation to pay any future invoices…”

These are all signs that the housing market is going to get a lot messier. Prices have plunged the most in San Francisco, followed by the Silicon Valley counties of San Mateo and Santa Clara.

In San Francisco.

The median price of single-family houses sold in November in San Francisco plunged by 11.4% from October to $1.50 million, and by 27% from the peak in April, according to the California Association of Realtors. A nasty-looking chart:

Condo prices plunged by 4.3% from the prior month to $1.15 million, and by 9.5% year-over-year. Since the peak in April, the median condo price is down by 15.5%. Condo sales in November have collapsed by 49%.

Seasonally, the lowest months are December and January. So that’s still to come.

But who is going to buy in the spring selling season? Prices normally rise as demand picks up in the spring; but who will be the exuberant tech workers that will want to overpay for a house by borrowing against the collapsed value of their stock options? Those lucky ones that still have jobs and stock options?

The housing markets in San Francisco and Silicon Valley are tied to the boom-and-bust cycles of the startup scene – now combined with the crypto scene and cryptos – and they’re tied to the stocks of startups and big tech and social media companies in the area, to the jobs that have to be done locally, and to the value of the stock options. All of them are puking.

Year-over-year, the median price of single-family houses in San Francisco plunged by 21%, the sixth month in a row of year-over-year declines. It was the biggest year-over-year plunge since the peak of Housing Bust 1:

Silicon Valley, San Mateo County.

The median price of single-family houses in San Mateo County, which forms the northern part of Silicon Valley, plunged by 6.2% from October to $1.78 million, and by 26% from the peak in April.

Year-over-year, the median house price plunged by 20%.

Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County.

Santa Clara County, which forms the southern part of Silicon Valley and includes the Bay Area’s largest city, San Jose, is lagging behind but is moving right along. The median price of single-family houses dropped by 1.5% in November from October to $1.60 million, and by 19% from the peak in April:

Year-over-year, the median house price dropped by 5.5%, the first significant year-over-year decline in this cycle. Prices had already undergone significant year-over-year declines in 2018 and 2019, and were on a downward path until the trillions in money-printing, the surge in the stock market, and the interest rate repression began to boost prices again.

Currently, Santa Clara County lags San Francisco and San Mateo by a few months, it seems.

In all of California.

Sales of single-family houses in California collapsed by 47.7% in November, compared to a year ago, the biggest decline since 1980, according to the California Association of Realtors. Condo sales collapsed by 46%.

Unsold inventory more than doubled year-over-year to a supply of 3.3 months, and days on the market also more than doubled – before sellers pulled the unsold homes off the market again.

For all of California, the median price of single-family houses plunged another 3.0% in November from October, which pushed the price down year-over-year (-0.6%). The median condo price fell 2.1% in November from October, which whittled down the year-over-year gain to just 2.7%.

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The post San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Enormous Worth Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Whole Mess appeared first on Los Gatos News And Events.

By now, you know all about the supply chain mess wreaking havoc on the global economy. The onset of the pandemic was the last straw on the camel’s back that broke the global supply chain, and it may be a while until it’s fixed.

Building owners are undoubtedly feeling the ill effects of product shortages. But we’re here to say the supply-shortage consequence you should be most worried about is in regards to your building’s HVAC system.

HVAC contractors nationwide have been hampered by rising costs, a labor shortage, and the inability to get their hands on needed materials like microchips. All this is leading to delays in getting repairs done. And with winter coming soon, now’s the time building owners need to get started on what could be a lengthy HVAC procurement process.

The supply chain nightmare has given all of us a lesson in logistics and globalization we probably didn’t want. It’s essential for property owners to prioritize HVAC repairs now, be flexible with contractors, and build resilience into their supply chains.

The supply chain chaos

You may remember the supply chain problems all began right after the virus struck and caused a shortage in vital medical supplies and personal protection equipment (PPE). As lockdowns began, tremendous demand for N95 masks and other PPE outstripped supply. Consumer panic buying also caused some strange situations (toilet paper shortage).

Unfortunately, this was just the beginning. Factories in parts of the world with much of the global manufacturing capacity were hammered by the pandemic, leading to shutdowns. Shipping companies thought consumer demand would drop because of lockdowns, but they were terribly mistaken. With stay-at-home orders in place, consumers went on online buying sprees for everything from personal computers to home gym equipment. The increased demand overwhelmed supply chains and slowed down the transportation of goods.

All told, it was a perfect storm. And now, more than 18 months since this all started, just about anything that’s produced or manufactured is in short supply. As a result, almost every industry has been hit hard. In particular, the automotive industry has been significantly impacted, as a shortage of microchips has led to considerable decreases in car production and increased costs for consumers.

The microchip shortage is one problem that’s affecting HVAC contractors. Semiconductors are essential components of HVAC systems and they’re in very short global supply. Shortages for all sorts of other HVAC parts have also been reported, including compressors, motors, and raw materials like copper, steel, aluminum, and plastic.

Labor away

Shortages of HVAC components have caused significant price increases. Raiven HVAC supply chain research reveals that specialized equipment including semiconductors will likely see 10-30 percent price increases soon. Copper prices reached an all-time high in May 2021, jumping more than 130 percent from March 2020. The steel price nearly doubled in August 2021 compared to last year, according to a US government index tracking the price.

The US Pacific Northwest and Southwest just went through a historically hot summer, increasing demand for HVAC services. The HVAC industry is also no stranger to labor shortages, but the pandemic has made it worse. All these factors have combined to cause the highest HVAC distributor lead times since 1987, according to Raiven research.

Karl Pomeroy, GM and President of Motili, a nationwide HVAC service provider, said many of the HVAC industry’s supply-chain problems have also been caused by very close to “all-time highs in terms of business growth” for the industry.

The HVAC industry’s labor shortage has had a significant impact, too, Pomeroy said. “As our industry gets more technically advanced, I think the labor shortage is more pronounced,” Pomeroy told us. “It takes a higher level of skill to service some of these pieces of equipment. The industry is also feeling a rising inflationary cost for labor because so many of these companies have to attract and retain top employees, and they’re paying more. So, not only are we paying more for finished goods and parts and pieces, but we’re also feeling the pinch of more expensive labor.”

Pomeroy added that for the typical building owner, they’ve seen fairly dramatic rising costs throughout the past 18 months, and “there’s really no end in sight.”

Stay ahead of the seasons

So, yes, it’s all rather messy right now. But while it seems like an apocalyptic scenario, it’s not all doom and gloom. By taking the proper steps, building owners can do many things to alleviate the pain. Undoubtedly, you’ve already been dealing with increased HVAC service prices and lead times for more than the past year, so you’ve probably come up with some solutions. But as this supply chain mess drags on, it’s imperative to keep a laser-like focus on your HVAC system—especially as winter approaches.

HVAC systems are one of the most expensive and vital pieces of equipment in commercial buildings, and breakdowns can be catastrophic. Get a fall inspection on your HVAC now, especially if it’s acting up. If there are needed fixes that require parts, lead times may be longer. Be proactive and patient with contractors, and get repairs done before the cold weather sets in.

Preventive maintenance of HVAC systems is more critical than ever right now. Check and change air filters on a monthly basis, keep the unit clean, and check heating-specific parts like gas/oil connections, burner combustion, and heat exchangers. This type of maintenance extends the unit’s lifespan and helps avoid significant problems during the heating season.

So see

“Tenant satisfaction is a huge factor affected by HVAC systems,” Pomeroy said. “A lot of our clients are moving into a model where they’re looking at their total portfolio of (HVAC) products, looking at the age of those products, and doing preventive maintenance to keep them in peak operating condition. Our clients are also more proactive when their systems starts to approach its age of replacement and putting it on a planned replacement strategy.”

Back up a system

A second and equally important thing building owners can do right now is build resilience into their supply chains. And this doesn’t just go for HVAC repairs and contractors. Take a look at all your vendors and suppliers and motto ways to make your supply chain stronger during these unpredictable times.

Beware of being stuck in a sole supplier situation. Establish secondary vendors and contractors for essential services (like HVAC), and don’t hesitate to reach out to them if their lead times are shorter or in emergency cases. Consider using supply chain management software, as well. Common programs from Blue Yonder, Infor, Oracle, and SAP help building owners gain better visibility into their vendors and supply chains and they also greatly benefit planning.

Perhaps the worst part of the supply chain nightmare is no one’s quite sure when it will end. Major exporters in Southeast Asia of critical components like semiconductors are still struggling to contain COVID-19, and global port and shipping congestion may last well into 2022.

The Biden administration has taken steps to alleviate the problems, such as urging the Port of Los Angeles to operate 24/7. But as General Motors CEO Mary Barra and other business leaders have indicated, the shortages and rising costs have forced many companies to re-think supply chain management altogether.

Pomeroy said building owners have to be “proactive instead of reactive” with their HVAC systems. Property managers need to focus on their HVAC units and ensure their mechanical components are in good working order. If they’re not focused on HVAC right now, he said, “they’re setting themselves up for a very difficult period of time.”

“I don’t believe this is a case where, in two to three months, all these supply chain and labor shortage issues affecting HVAC go away,” Pomeroy said. “I think we all came into 2021 thinking, well, it’s going to be better. In some cases, it has been better. But in some cases, it hasn’t been. The demands on the HVAC industry have been high. For those clients who are sitting back and waiting, they’re running the risk of the day they decide to do something, they’re going to find themselves not being able to find a labor source or not being able to find the materials.”

Lead times for HVAC repairs may be longer, and costs may be higher, so be proactive about this situation and keep a close watch on it. Get fall HVAC maintenance done as early as possible, and also think about other essential supplies and parts that may be affected. Resiliency, flexibility, and planning skills are the key attributes for surviving this supply chain turmoil. You likely already know about the supply chain issue, don’t wait until it leaves you out in the cold.

The post What the Provide Chain Mess Means for HVAC Repairs appeared first on Los Gatos News And Events.

Map 4B cuts D5 at Divisadero

Decisive Vote Saturday After Shameful Process

A near final draft map must be approved by the Redistricting Task Force on Saturday, April 9. The city attorney informed the Task Force that after April 9 only tinkering around the edges is allowed.

The Elections Commission has set an emergency meeting for Friday at 1:30 pm. Many believe it may remove its three appointed members to the Task Force. This prospect has altered its own controversy.

Replacing three members on the eve of a final vote risks creating a public perception that certain political forces have hijacked the process. While backers of the plan feel it’s fair to change a process that they see as rigged against them, the public will not see it that way. Nor are courts likely to look favorably on a last minute change to the Task Force (it’s hard for me to believe the Election Commission can legally change their appointees this late in the process).

Do San Francisco Democrats really want national stories about how Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco fired three members of the redistricting task force on the eve of casting final votes? That’s what media coverage will look like if the Election Commission proceeds..

Opponents of the flawed redistricting process have occupied the high ground. This late attack on the Task Force members undermines this perception.

Mayor Breed and State Senator Wiener issued press releases opposing the potential Elections Commission move. Supervisors Stefani and Safai sent a letter and Matt Haney tweeted similar sentiments. Now we have an astroturf campaign urging people to “Stand with Chasel, Ditka, and Raynell” (the three Task Force members appointed by the Elections Commission). It claims “Fair Representation and Due Process Matter” even though both have often been missing from the Task Force’s operation.

Has this challenge to their service made the three Task Force members more or less likely to side with their opponents’ redistricting arguments? I leave it to readers to decide.

While we await the final map, a final verdict on the redistricting process can already be rendered: it has been a complete embarrassment for San Francisco. After two decades without controversy, San Francisco’s redistricting process was driven by the type of political paybacks that Democrats justifiably criticize Republicans for doing across red states.

How could this happen?

30,000 Extra Residents in D6

The door to political machinations around redistricting was opened by the need to shift 30, 000 D6 residents to another district. That’s because most new housing units since the 2010 census were built in D6.

This unequal distribution of new housing requires an unprecedented population shift. From October to late March, there were two rival plans.

I describe the plan backed by the Tenderloin Housing Clinic (which I head), many SRO tenants, Supervisor Aaron Peskin and Chinatown activists in a March 22 story laying out the case (“SF Redistricting: Why the Tenderloin Must Join D3”). We saw the shift as unifying the two neighborhoods with the most SRO tenants. It would produce a more progressive D3 and leave SOMA unified.

The rival plan kept the tenderloin in D6 and addressed D6’s overpopulation by shifting parts of entire SOMA neighborhoods to other districts. My article backed SOMA neighborhood groups in opposing this division.

I wrote my story after groups were working on the redistricting process for over five months. My March 22 article never mentioned the Tenderloin moving to D5 because that idea was not on the table.

I had heard about the Tenderloin to D5 plan but there was insufficient basis in fact for me to even include it in the story. I asked D5 Supervisor Dean Preston about these rumors and he had the same take as mine: they shouldn’t be taken seriously. After all, D5 had no population change and there was no reason to add 30,000 Tenderloin residents to the district. Further, for all the talk about prioritizing “communities of interest,” there are barely any SRO hotels in D5. The Tenderloin’s diverse, low-income population is more connected to Chinatown—CCCD owns multiple buildings in the Tenderloin—than to D5.

But on March 25 everything changed. This was the first vote to shift the Tenderloin to D5. This is when the decimation of the longstanding boundaries of D5 began.

Chair Townsend’s move

The rumblings I heard about D5 stemmed from comments made by Task Force Chair Reverend Arnold Townsend. Townsend wanted to redesign the D5 into a “black seat.” He subsequently stated such sentiments at the Task Force and to the media.

I’ve known the Reverend Townsend for a long time. We had a long talk about redistricting. I disputed that adding the Tenderloin to D5 would create a “black seat.” I noted that London Breed won election with the current boundaries.

London Breed also joined Willie Brown in being the only black mayors ever elected in the nation with such a small percentage of black voters in the city. The idea of ​​needing to carve out a certain percentage of black voters to elect black candidates has not applied in San Francisco (until Ed Lee, Brown was the most popular mayor among Asian-American voters in city history).

Our team began getting reports from Task Force members that the “ship had sailed” regarding moving the Tenderloin and Central SOMA to D3. The March 25 map instead put the Tenderloin in D5 for the first time. The Task Force subsequently voted 8-1 to reverse their vote, but at their next meeting returned to the map that ends D5 at Divisadero.

In other words, the entire Haight-Ashbury would no longer be in D5. Nor would the Inner Sunset or NOPA, A massive political gerrymandering to reduce tenant power was being carried out in pro-tenant, tenant-majority San Francisco.

Political agendas

San Francisco politics is divided by those identifying either as “moderates” or “progressives.” Moderately gained control of the Task Force because progressives weren’t focused on getting their allies appointed. Battle-tested veterans of San Francisco’s political wars did not apply. Progressives routinely outnumber moderates at redistricting hearings but it’s the composition of the Task Force that most counts.

The nine member Task Force had only two members, Chair Townsend and José María (Chema) Hernandez Gil, who were well known in the political community. One member only recently moved to San Francisco. Others had little familiarity with the city’s political history. The Task Force lacked the skills and experience required to make the best decisions in a highly charged political environment (this was further shown last night when one task force member proposed out of nowhere that the Tenderloin be split between D5 and D6. Nobody with knowledge of the district elections history for the tenderloin would ever consider such a move).

Why target Preston? He is the supervisor most publicly critical of Mayor Breed. He ran against Breed for supervisor. He unseated her supervisor appointee, Vallie Brown, and then defeated her again. I don’t think there are two elected officials in the city with a worst relationship than Preston and Breed.

Preston also consistently sponsors legislation to help tenants. And he gets legislation passed. This has made him landlords number one target.

The gerrymandering to weaken the board’s tenant power is a replay of the August 1980 special election to overturn district elections. A major reason landlord and downtown interests pushed the recall was to prevent a pro-tenant district board from passing vacancy control. These interests didn’t care that it was completely undemocratic to hold a summer special election; landlord interests don’t care what the optics look like so long as they can weaken tenant power and unseat Dean Preston.

Why Everyone Should Care

This D5 massacre goes far beyond Dean Preston. In fact, I believe Preston will win re-election in 2024 under the new district lines.

The real victims here are the residents of D5 who are being suddenly moved to another district. I would bet at least 75% of those impacted have no idea this is happening. How would they know? The last big media coverage was after the vote rejecting the splitting up of D5. With meetings going into the early morning even hard core activists can’t stay up long enough to know how the Task Force has voted.

How is it that a process that has gone on for months, that as of March 22 has had no public testimony supporting the splitting of D5, could suddenly change course? The answer is that this late switch gave opponents less time to mobilize opposition.

I wish the late Planning Commissioner and Supervisor Sue Bierman were alive to publicly denounce what is being done to her beloved Haight-Ashbury. Bierman did not stop a freeway from going through Golden Gate Park to see her community radically split up.

For all of its increased wealth, the Haight-Ashbury remains pro-tenant. And that is unacceptable to those redrawing district lines.

Today’s meeting starts at 3pm and has no finish time. Tomorrow’s meeting starts at 10am. I’ll update this story after the Saturday vote.

Randy Shaw

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco

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“I think the wind seems to be blowing here,” said Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist at UCSF. “I don’t see the state or federal government stepping in. It will largely be a private sector solution that is government sponsored but not mandated. It will be like ‘no shoes, no shirt, no service’.”

Even if the state does not require companies to ask their customers to present digital vaccination cards, the simple provision of the digital infrastructure and the gentle stimulation of companies in this direction – which is already the case with the vaccination of employees – could be a de facto Create a system of vaccination records. The state’s digital IDs are not as easy to forge as the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s physical vaccination cards and could become the preferred method of verifying vaccine status in the state.

Vaccination records are controversial. Some Republican-led states have banned communities from adopting a vaccination record, and even in heavily Democratic California, where 61% of the population is fully vaccinated, Newsom avoids using the phrase.

The only state where a version of “vaccine passports” has been introduced on a relatively large scale is Hawaii, a major tourist center with millions of visitors Annual visitors from the mainland. It didn’t go well.

In early July, Hawaii launched its Safe Travels Program, which allows travelers to skip a quarantine period or receive a negative test in order to provide proof of vaccination. According to local TV reports, the first day of the broadcast at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport was a mess.

As part of the program, travelers were required to post pictures of their vaccination cards to the Safe Travels website in advance. As soon as travelers arrived at the airport, the waiting time for the control lines was more than an hour and there were finger pointing.

“They said about 90% of the cards submitted through Safe Travels have not yet been verified by Hawaii,” one traveler told KHON2.

Meanwhile, the state said that 70% of travelers didn’t properly follow the instructions when uploading their cards. Originally, Hawaii only allowed uploading images from the official CDC cards, but later allowed vaccination cards from health care providers or hospitals to be uploaded.

“Uploading the vaccination card is not easy. Unless you are tech-savvy, regardless of whether seniors are having difficulty uploading the carry card, or the phone functions do not have this ability to upload the card or vaccination card,” Bob Burr, the Operations manager of the agency behind Safe Travels, told KITV4.

California has no immediate plans to introduce vaccination records for travel, but Hawaii’s challenges with the Safe Travels system raise some questions about the California digital system. As soon as Californians submit information about their vaccination card (name, date of birth, cell phone number, email), they should receive their digital card with a QR code.

The operative phrase there is “should”.

Tens of thousands of Californians report delays in getting their QR codes, and a recent report from the San Francisco Chronicle describes some of the problems behind the scenes with the system (SFGATE and San Francisco Chronicle are both owned and operated by Hearst) independently ).

According to the Chronicle, many of vaccine site records are incomplete, with typos, or otherwise inaccurate, and the state has a team of 80 people who work on troubleshooting and correcting records. There is no timetable for when there will be minimal delays.

Only 1.4 million people have successfully received their digital records, which is about 3.5% of the California population. If restaurants, bars, sports venues, and other businesses considering vaccine passports choose to use the state’s digital system, it is highly unlikely that the state will be able to cope with the influx of vaccinees using their digital Find maps, process them quickly and efficiently, and thus create another Hawaiian airport location.

The other important lesson for California is how unvaccinated individuals respond to companies requiring proof of vaccination to enter.

Bars and restaurants on Oahu that were operating at full capacity were instructed to require customers to provide evidence of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test result within the past 48 hours to enter, and Hawaii News Now reported that the facilities subsequently “Eaten alive” by unhappy customers have been using the policy.

“That would be difficult to handle and I didn’t want to get my employees into a situation,” said one restaurant owner who does not follow the order.

Reports of unruly restaurant goers are piling up in California, and the Hawaii Restaurant Association said it could not name a single restaurant that is still sticking to the order after widespread backlash.

From a practical standpoint, it seems unlikely that companies can rely on the state’s slow digital system as the primary method of checking vaccinations. Instead, companies must use physical vaccination cards that are easily forged or lost. However, physical cards still have the issues of compliance and the situation where employees can be confronted and harassed by customers.

The only development that could potentially differentiate the California vaccination record from the Hawaiian one is the full FDA approval of the COVID-19 vaccines, which in theory would remove the remaining excuses for not vaccinating. Rutherford expects full approval sometime in the fall.

“Once it is not just an emergency approval, certain people who have hesitated can move on and the vaccine can be more easily prescribed,” Rutherford said. “The reason places like the US military haven’t mandated the vaccine is because it’s not fully approved. Once that is the case, people can start pushing buttons and implement it. “

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(Google Street View)

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – The superintendent at the San Francisco Justice Hall said water flowed through secured pipes on the fifth floor Friday morning into a hallway, but it has since been cleaned.

“There was no poop all the way down the hall,” said site supervisor Scott Cline.

CONTINUE READING: Families, teachers march at rallies in the Bay Area calling for schools to reopen

Civil engineers and custodians were made aware of the interruption around 9 a.m. and arrived on the fifth floor to find water on the floor.

The fifth floor still serves as office space for some San Francisco Police Department employees, although most police officers, including Chief Greg Suhr, have moved to the newly constructed public security building.

Cline said everything near the stalemate has been cleaned and sanitized and will be cleaned and sanitized again this weekend.

CONTINUE READING: Hundreds are gathering in San Jose to assist Asians and islanders in the Pacific during attacks

He said fans and dehumidifiers are set up to ensure the carpet that has just been cleaned dries on time for Monday business hours.

Cline said there are frequent interruptions on the top two floors of the building, floors six and seven, where the county jail is located.

He said inmates were known to clog the building’s system with shirts and other debris.

The superintendent couldn’t say exactly what caused the hiatus on Friday.

MORE NEWS: Petaluma Police arrest suspect who allegedly attacked temporarily with bamboo stick

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