This Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers at AT&T Stadium. It is their first playoff encounter since 1995, in which San Francisco won 38-28.
If you listen to the national media this week, everyone doubts the Cowboys and gives the 49ers the edge. All you hear is how Deebo Samuel, Geroge Kittle and the 49ers’ running game are going to be too much for Dallas.
It’s almost like Dallas getting fired. As a cowboy fan, it must be frustrating, but it would make a win all the sweeter.
Despite everything, the 49ers pose some problems.
They’re a very physical team with a very good offensive line and have a left tackle in Trent Williams who, despite missing the season finale with an elbow injury, said he’s ready to play this Sunday. Randy Gregory will have his work cut out for him this week.
The 49ers are also great at producing yards after catches. They rank eighth in the NFL in yards after catching, and Deebo Samuel finished the season with second most yards after catching. The 49ers offense finished the season as the number one yards per game (6.1)
The Cowboys struggle to contain YAC and tend to give up big plays. It will be a tough test for Dallas cornerbacks and linebackers
Akash Anavarathan on Twitter: “Yards After Catch Allowed, CBs, 2021: 3rd Trevon Diggs, 425 7th Jourdan Lewis, 326 13th Anthony Brown, 300 Cowboys’ DBs have given up 1,051 yards after catches this season. Guess which team they’re playing this week… / Twitter”
Yards Allowed After Catch, CBs, 2021: 3rd Trevon Diggs, 425 7th Jourdan Lewis, 326 13th Anthony Brown, 300 Cowboys’ DBs have given up 1,051 yards after catches this season. Guess which team they’re playing against this week…
The key to the game will be stopping the 49ers’ run-first offense. They ran the ball fifth of all teams this season, just under 30 deaths per game. According to rbsdm.com, the 49ers have the ninth best offense in terms of rush EPA and ninth best in terms of rush success rate.
Last week, the 49ers scored a touchdown on a drive that included ten runs and one pass, and that pass was from Samuel, not Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Cowboys must force Garoppolo to hit them and be responsible for moving the ball towards them. You can’t give up simple meters on the ground.
If Garoppolo is forced to win the game for San Francisco, look for a few turnovers from the Dallas defense.
Third down will also be crucial. The 49ers are converting 40.2% of their third downs (14th place) but have shone with 48.57% over the past three weeks. The Dallas defense shines third in the league in second place in third place efficiency (34.08%). It will be crucial for the Cowboys to continue their success on this front.
It’s easy for Dallas on offense, Dak Prescott needs to come on to play and he needs to shine. The 49ers’ pass defense ranks mid-table in dropback success rate (13th) and bottom in the league in dropback EPA (23rd).
Of course it would be nice to see how Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard influence this game. However, the 49ers’ rush defense is outstanding. They rank second in Rush EPA (-0.151) and Rush Success Rate (34.2%).
The Cowboys need to start fast and hot and take an early lead to pressure the 49ers. Keeping them in the game with costly penalties and botched redzone drives will allow them to stick to their run-first game plan, and Dallas ranks 23rd in yards per attempt on the defensive side of the ball.
The pressure will be this Sunday and Prescott has to show himself. Will he prove the haters wrong? Only time can tell.
