According to census data, San Francisco saw the second largest population decline of any major city in the United States in 2020. Only one city – Baltimore – saw a major population decline.
San Francisco’s population shrank 1.39% between July 1, 2019 and July 1, 2020, according to U.S. census data. Previously, San Francisco’s population had grown modestly since 2010. Baltimore, on the other hand, was down 1.42%.
San Jose was the city with the third largest population decline, shrinking 1.3% over that period, although the city also saw negative growth in 2019.
While they top the list of population declines, San Francisco and San Jose are not necessarily outliers for such declines. Of the 50 most populous U.S. cities, 15 have shrunk during the pandemic, including New York, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago, according to the data.
Where did the people go who left the big cities of the Bay Area? Postal service data shows they have moved primarily to other parts of the Bay Area or California. A Chronicle analysis in March found that 72% of address changes filed with the United States Postal Service resulted in moves to other Bay Area counties, and about a fifth went to another location in California.
For those who left the state, Washington State was the most popular destination, according to the Chronicle. That’s in line with the census data, which showed Seattle – which was among the fastest growing cities in recent years – topped the list for 2020, increasing its population by 2.2%.
Like San Francisco, Seattle has become a center for technicians. Bay Area tech giants like Google and Facebook have offices there, and Salesforce, San Francisco’s largest private employer, has a significant division in Seattle after acquiring local software company Tableau. Amazon and Microsoft are also based in the coastal city and are hiring quickly.
Real estate prices in Seattle are also significantly lower than in the Bay Area. An average one-bedroom apartment there costs $ 1,500, which is well below the $ 2,650 in San Francisco, according to real estate firm Zumper.
Also contributing to the decline in San Francisco and San Jose is the fact that California saw a decline in new arrivals to the state, leaving fewer people to replace those who, according to a March study by the California Policy Lab, an initiative of UCLA and UC., replaced Berkeley, which uses data to answer policy questions.
But while the census data captures what happened in the first few months of the pandemic, it doesn’t answer whether there have been changes since July or how much of the loss is due to people’s relocations versus natural population growth – births and deaths.
There is reason to believe that San Francisco is already making a comeback. San Francisco rental prices are rebounding strongly after falling during the pandemic, a report from Apartment List found suggesting people may be ready to return to the city. The Apartment List Analysis uses real estate data on their website and statistics from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and includes rents for older homes and those in low-income neighborhoods.
Danielle Echeverria is a contributor to the San Francisco Chronicle. Twitter: @DanielleEchev Email: danielle.echeverria@sfchronicle.com
