Native Well being Consultants Cautiously Optimistic About Delta Variant Surge Waning – CBS San Francisco

OAKLAND (KPIX) – The COVID positivity rate has fallen again in California, with hospital admissions falling in many parts of the state, including the Bay Area.

In fact, it might not be long before the region is back to where it was in May and June.

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“The models show us that we will be at a low level by mid to late September, again at a low level of cases; the pleasantly low values ​​that we had for so long, ”said Dr. Monica Gandhi, UCSF Infectious Disease Expert.

Thanks to high vaccination rates and some extra precautionary measures, the Bay Area is leaving the delta rise. It is extremely good news that Gandhi fears he is getting lost in a barrage of different headlines about the state of the pandemic.

“I think we have mixed messages where people talk a lot about breakthroughs,” explains Gandhi. “But David Leonhardt did a really great article in the New York Times this morning. He really said your risk of breakthrough depends on whether you are in a place with low or high infection rates. Makes perfect sense. “

“You just have to look at what happened in Florida and Texas and the South to say, ‘This could have been us,’ right? If we had had lower vaccination rates, ”said UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford. “We have achieved a lot with this.”

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Rutherford says Delta has uncovered the risk of parts of the population being exposed, noting that there are still corners of the region – and age groups – where more needs to be done.

“We have to work to improve our vaccination protection,” said Rutherford. “We have to anticipate when pediatric vaccines will be available, children 5-11, which will hopefully be sometime in October.”

There’s another reason why it would be a great achievement to overcome Delta. Many experts consider the variant to be so transferable that it simply cannot become contagious. If so, the virus may have hit its best.

“As soon as people get more and more immunity, no other virus can prevail,” said Gandhi. “So it’s the only terrible silver lining for Delta; it affects a lot of people and leads to a lot of immunity. “

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“Monica is right about 110% of the time. So I think she’s probably right, ”said Rutherford. “I don’t see any big new mutations coming down the pike.”