SANTA CLARA, CA – NOVEMBER 7: Ambry Thomas # 20 of the San Francisco 49ers defends during the game … [+]
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The San Francisco 49ers face another high leverage game to secure a playoff spot and run low in a key group.
San Francisco faces a challenging street game in Week 14 with another playoff contender, the Cincinnati Bengals, in a match between two teams whose postseason hopes have been tarnished by post-season losses. The 49ers were stunned in a wild game by the Seattle Seahawks while the Bengals suffered a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
It was a painful loss for the Niners, who sustained further injuries in Seattle. While rewinding, Elijah Mitchell suffered a concussion that ruled him out along with a knee problem against Cincinnati. Emmanuel Moseley suffered an ankle sprain while pressing the pause button on a stellar campaign for the cornerback.
Mitchell’s absence, which would be made worse if Deebo Samuel – listed as questionable – is unable to return from an Achilles tendon problem, is a blow to the running game. However, San Francisco managed 9.5 yards per passing game last week and managed to move the offensive even without an efficient rushing attack.
More worrisome is Moseley’s loss, compounded when backup Dontae Johnson was ruled out on Saturday on a personal matter.
The Niners have a choice of two rookies, Ambry Thomas for the third round and Deommodore Lenoir for the fifth round, to start opposite Josh Norman.
Thomas has played mostly on special teams this season while Lenoir, who impressed when he stepped into action earlier in the season, was on the bench after Week 3 and his lack of time on the field against Seattle was evident when he played DK Metcalf. gave up a downfield reception, was suspended for a pass disruption in the red zone and suffered a touchdown for D’Wayne Eskridge after filling the gap left by Moseley’s injury.
Choosing between Thomas and Lenoir is not an enviable task for the Niners as their defenses prepare to face one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL.
The Bengals rank a disappointing 20th in expected points added per game in offense, according to rbsdm.com, but the effects of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd’s trident are bettered by Cincinnati’s 8th in the NFL in Explosive. illustrates pass rate, per Sharp Football Stats.
San Francisco is 19th allowed in the NFL in Explosive Pass Rate and now has razor-thin depth in an area of the team that was already considered a weakness.
Either Thomas or Lenoir will be thrown into the fire and there isn’t much reason for the Niners to trust the man who starts on the other far corner. Norman has had significant reporting issues consistently since joining the team in September.
The 49ers’ defense has improved in the last four games and is now in seventh place in the DVOA, which is weighted by Football Outsiders. It is unclear whether this improvement can be sustained without Moseley, whose reliability in reporting contributed significantly to these positive steps.
Against a still extremely vulnerable offensive line of the Bengals, which ranks 27th in the adjusted sack rate of Football Outsiders, the 49ers can rely on the defensive front, the depth of which is in stark contrast to that of the defensive backcourt to their fragile secondary side to protect.
There is no doubt, however, that either Thomas or Lenoir will at some point receive a severe test from the fearsome reception trio of the Bengals. In a game that FiveThirtyEight ranks as the most important of Week 14 in the playoff race, whoever the Niners choose to start in Moseley’s place is imperative to take on the challenge.
