San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks odds and decide – Week 4, 2021

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
The San Francisco 49ers will look to shake off a frustrating defeat and claim their first home win in 2021 when Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks come to town for their first league game in 2021. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 1:05 pm (FOX)
- Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -3, over / under 52
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have lost two in a row, including a home loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 2 and a 17-30 loss as a street favorite with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
After three weeks, Seattle ranks 7th in the DVOA total value (Defense-adjusted value over average), adjusted for Variation Early (DAVE) with 12.2 percent, 3rd place in the offensive DAVE with 16.4 percent, with a 3rd place rush DVOA at 11.0 percent. The Seahawks defense is rated 24th in the defensive DAVE with 4.1 percent with a 27th rated defensive pass DVOA with 30.8 percent and the 18th rated defensive rush DVOA with -10.2 percent.
Russell Wilson is 4th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Over Replacement (DYAR) with 327 and 16th in Overall QBR with 55.6 with 7 touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a completion percentage of 73.3. Seattle’s Offensive Line is 4th in Run Blocking with 4.93 adjusted line yards and 25th in Pass Protection with an adjusted bag rate of 8.4 percent. The Seahawks’ defensive line is 16th with 4.23 adjusted line yards and 20th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.9 percent.
The Seahawks have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 1.9 and are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 over / under. Marquise Blair, Kerry Hyder Jr., Rashaad Penny, D’Wayne Eskeridge, Brandon Shell, and Benson Mayowa are in question for week 4.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners seemed ineffective and flawed on both sides of the ball in their home opener in Week 3, losing in the final second to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers by 28-30 points in a game where they seemed behind and seemed to be the losing team for most of the game.
After three weeks, San Francisco ranks 12th in the overall DAVE with 8.4 percent, 11th in the offensive DAVE with 3.5 percent, the 11th offensive pass DVOA with 30.1 percent and the 7th offensive rush DVOA with -6.7 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in defense DAVE with -4.4 percent, with a defensive pass DVOA with 16.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 13th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Over Replacement (DYAR) with 191 and 14th in overall QBR with 56.9 with 4 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost, and 68.8 completion percentage. The San Francisco offensive line is 15th in run blocking with 4.16 adjusted line yards and 12th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.9 percent. The Niners’ defensive line is 14th against the run with 3.97 adjusted line yards and 21st with an adjusted sack rate of 5.7 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.6 and are 1-2 ATS and 2-1 for over / under. K’Waun Williams is out, George Kittle, Josh Norman and Elijah Mitchell are questionable for week 4.
forecast
Handicaps often suggest that teams are never as bad as their worst game or as good as their best game, and caution not to be swayed by news Lockett, especially at Levi’s, where the Seahawks have been 6 since 2014: 1 ATS are.
Sure, the Niners have won some big games at Levi’s, but during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, the 49ers are 13-19-1 ATS at home and 5-12-1 ATS at home. The Seahawks have lost twice in a row and are desperately looking to win and we can only consider taking the points with the road team if we are forced to choose a side.
With Josh Norman hospitalized this week with bruised blood on both sides and K’Waun Williams out this week, San Francisco’s high school is ripe for Wilson’s dismantling and we expect Seattle to score points. On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defenses have been torn apart for the past two weeks and we expect Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo to put their offensive skills to the test in Week 4.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 fights between these teams and we expect points on Sunday. This line opened at 50 and has been moving steadily. We set it at 51, but it has continued to rise and is currently at 52.5 on some books, suggesting that this number could get bigger as the week progresses.
Selection: over 52
Season ATS: 2-1
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