San Francisco’s high well being official estimates new lockdown has already saved 330 lives
San Francisco’s top health official announced an update on the city’s COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday, saying the increase in new cases has slowed slightly since the day immediately after Thanksgiving, showing that the city’s new stay-at-home policy , is working.
Dr. Grant Colfax said two weeks ago the number of new daily cases increased by an average of 8% per day, while starting Tuesday they increased by 2% per day.
“This is because of the changes we’ve made to our behavior,” Colfax said, referring to the new December 7th health ordinance that closed everything from outdoor restaurants to museums. “This is a hopeful sign. It is an improvement. But I must stress that we still have a long way to go. Remember, this rate will continue to fall. Even if we continue at this current rate would increase, our situation would continue to increase. ” That was going to be bad for the next few months. Let’s go ahead and slow down this virus. Let’s not have a situation that happened right after Thanksgiving. “
As noted in previous press conferences, Colfax keeps a close eye on the city’s reproduction rate (Rt). This is the average number of people infected by a sick person. If it is above 1.0, a virus is spreading quickly. A virus can die if the RT is below 1.0.
The city’s reproduction rate was estimated at 1.45 before the order was imposed on December 5, and at the time Colfax said the city was forecasting there could be up to 544 additional deaths. Due to the new restrictions, the rate has dropped to 1.24 as of December 20, and Colfax said if the Rt persists at those levels, the city could see up to 214 additional deaths.
“I know these differences, 1.45 versus 1.24, don’t sound like much, but as a result of this change, the projected median hospital stays have decreased from 1,490 to 590,” said Colfax. “The additional estimated mean deaths are down by 330, which is 330 people projected to die from COVID-19 in San Francisco who may not die. And we did, and we must continue to do it together When we move forward, by limiting our mobility, wearing a mask, social distancing, and not even gathering in small groups, we have saved lives.
SFDEM and Mayor of London N. Breed – Virtual Press Conference – COVID-19 Update – December 22, 2020 https://t.co/6GJjbwLDiz
– City of San Francisco (@sfgov) December 22, 2020
California Governor Gavin Newsom introduced the stay-at-home order last month to keep local health systems from collapsing under the weight of skyrocketing COVID-19 case numbers.
It divides the state into five major regions and limits those with ICU bed capacity below 15%. After it comes into force, the order comes into effect for three weeks, but it can be extended.
San Francisco and several Bay Area counties issued the state mandate order even though the area’s intensive care units didn’t drop below 15%. The region has since hit the threshold, and the state ordinance went into effect on December 17 and can repeal it on January 8 if the ICU capacity is 15% or more.
Colfax said he currently doesn’t know if the date will be extended.
“That depends on regional capacity,” said Colfax. “We will continue to monitor our local prosecutors in San Francisco and determine if further action is required.”
