SF Residents Shifting Round The Larger Bay Space Is Creating A ‘Megaregion’
SF movers have been very busy as most San Francisco residents have relocated to nearby counties. With more residents leaving the Bay Area in recent years, city planners have designated the area around the Bay as a mega-region. As the region begins to include cities like Fresno and Sacramento, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) is making plans accordingly.
SFist has previously reported on the fabled “Cal Exodus” and whether or not the research supports the claims. According to a UC San Diego survey, the number of people leaving California has been relatively flat for the past two years.
“Despite the popular notion that unhappy Californians are leaving the state en masse, our solid research shows that there is in fact no exodus,” said Thad Kousser, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego and lead researcher on the survey. “Most residents say they still believe in the ‘California Dream.'”
Regardless of the statistics, there is evidence that people are leaving the Bay Area for cheaper housing and the cost of living. Researchers like Dr. Seva Rodnyansky, professor of urban and environmental policy at Occidental College, saw a connection between people’s income and where they live by tracking state tax returns.
“In places like Roseville and Folsom, nearly 35 percent of movers had household incomes of $100,000,” Rodnyansky said in his interview with ABC7 News. “In contrast, 30 percent or more of those willing to move to Stockton, Los Banos and Patterson had household incomes of less than $25,000. So that’s a pretty big difference.”
Since the pandemic, remote work has increased more than ever. In 2020, nearly 70% of full-time employees were working from home. As more people seemed to realize that remote work might have been a longer-term situation for both employees and companies, city dwellers took it as a sign to move somewhere cheaper when commuting was no longer a factor.
While commuter traffic declined overall, residents moving to outlying counties (such as Merced, San Joaquin, and Yolo) caused a surge in traffic. One of the reasons for this is an increase in “super commuters” from these areas who commute 50 miles or more to work. As of August 2021, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles account for about a third of the super-commuters in the country. Most super commuters live in Stockton, about 80 miles east of San Francisco. Also following Stockton are Modesto, Santa Rosa and San Jose in the top ten metro areas with the highest rates of super commuters, most of whom commute to San Francisco.
As a result, the MTC is planning a list of twelve transportation projects in the mega-region. They examine migration patterns and prioritize the order in which they complete projects. The MTC is also working to obtain state and federal assistance to fund these projects. No cost projections are available at this time, but it’s certainly going to be expensive.
“They will develop a strategy and create a work plan to jointly track funding and work together on these grant applications,” said Diane Nguyen of the San Joaquin Government Council.
