The omicron surge in San Francisco could also be peaking
The unprecedented surge of COVID-19 that has slammed the Bay Area in recent weeks may finally be on the downswing, according to both city and state data.
While some of the apparent plateau may be the result of delayed reporting, many experts believe case numbers really are starting to level off here, as they have in some other parts of the country.
“City cases plateaued,” Dr. Bob Wachter, the chair of the department of medicine at UCSF, wrote on Twitter on Monday.
His UCSF colleague Dr. Peter Chin-Hong competed. “While some may call it an early victory call and wait for a few more data points over the next few days, it does appear real,” Chin-Hong, who is an expert in infectious diseases, told SFGATE.
dr George Rutherford, also at UCSF, isn’t ready to officially call it the peak, but did say the timeline matches models that have been predicting California cases will peak in mid-January.
“You’d expect it to peak earlier in San Francisco than in other places in California,” Rutherford told SFGATE. “After all, we were where the first case was identified in the US”
Rutherford said the hospitalization peak usually lags about one to one and a half weeks behind the peak in cases. However, while the number of people testing positive in the hospital has continued to climb in both state and city data, UCSF hospital cases have been flat for a week.
“At UCSF, we have been holding steady with COVID hospitalizations since Jan. 11 with no major increases,” Chin-Hong said.
Some experts have warned that hospitalization data exaggerates the severity of the current wave, as it includes both those who were hospitalized for COVID-19 and those who were hospitalized for other issues and then tested positive for COVID-19, but might have only mild or no symptoms
dr Jeanne Noble, the head of COVID response for UCSF’s emergency department, told SFGATE last week that after reviewing the charts of every COVID-positive patient at UCSF hospitals on Jan. 4, she determined 70% of COVID-19 cases were “incidental positives, “Patients who tested positive after being admitted to the hospital for reasons such as such as a hip fracture or a bowel obstruction.
Her data suggests that in January 2022, fewer people are being admitted to hospitals because of severe COVID illness than in the winter of 2021. That conclusion is supported by data showing that, in San Francisco, fewer COVID-19 patients have required admission to intensive care units.
“The 2022 hospitalization peak and curve will look very different in 2022 compared to 2021 — significantly lower use of mechanical ventilation, shorter hospital stays, a higher proportion of people admitted with COVID (incidentally — these are folks who were screened positive for infection when they were admitted with something else) rather than because of COVID,” Chin-Hong said. “The lower rate of severe illness is part omicron related, but certainly and substantially helped by the high vaccination rate — very different from one year ago when they were just beginning to be rolled out.”
This trend can also be seen elsewhere in the Bay Area. At the start of the month, Marin County recorded a spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations. But of the 19 people hospitalized in the county, at least 42% were incidental cases, including five patients in a psychiatric ward who had no symptoms of the virus. That number rose to 48% this week.
On Jan 11, SF Health Director Dr Grant Colfax said while hospitalizations had been increasing in the city, the “numbers are not climbing nearly at the level that they would have if we didn’t have such great coverage with vaccines.” In San Francisco, 85% of the eligible population (residents 5 and over) is fully vaccinated.
“We are optimistic that because of our city’s high vaccination and booster rates, we will get through this omicron surge without running out of those all-important intensive care unit beds,” Colfax said.
Wastewater samples may also provide a clue that the omicron surge has peaked. Santa Clara County is seeing a decline in the amount of virus found in such samples, as are San Francisco and some parts of Marin County.
“Across the Bay Area, the epidemiology has mostly been shared,” Marin County health officer Dr. Matt Willis said. “As a region, we’ve traveled together through most stages of the pandemic; we’ve moved together on the timing and scale of waves we’ve experienced. So when Santa Clara is seeing evidence of a plateau, that can be reassuring for the Bay Area as a whole, but it’s too early to tell.”
Rutherford cautioned that even if we have hit the peak, the virus will continue to be present in the community for several weeks.
“Half the cases will occur in the downslope. There are a lot more cases to come,” he said.
Last week, Colfax said the peak is in sight and he expects the city to turn the corner soon, but he emphasized that people should still get vaccinated if they haven’t already.
“If you are up to date on your vaccinations, it is extremely unlikely you would be hospitalized due to COVID,” Colfax said.
