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Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 7

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 7

The Chiefs (4-2) head into Levi’s Stadium to take on the 49ers (3-3) in an interconference clash that also serves as a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Both teams come looking to rebound from Week 6 losses – Kansas City dropped a 24-20 decision at Arrowhead Stadium to the Bills, while San Francisco surprisingly fell to the Falcons by a 28-14 margin on the road.

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers for Week 7

*Best lines at time of writing listed

money line: Chiefs -120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ 49ers +114 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Point spread: Chiefs -1 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ 49ers +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Total: Over 48.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 49 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)

The 49ers opened as 1.5-point underdogs when the line was first released last week, and the number had seen an interesting trajectory since. The Chiefs saw their projected advantage swell up to -3 following Week 6 outcomes, but the seismic development of the Christian McCaffrey acquisition by San Francisco predictably had an impact on the number once news broke late Thursday. Even though there still isn’t any certainty as to how many snaps, if any, McCaffrey will play, the number has taken a dive to as much as -1 as of Saturday morning.

The total has also seen some interesting movement, opening at a relatively modest 47.5 before dipping all the way to 46 in the immediate aftermath of Week 6. However, the number began an ascension shortly thereafter and has gotten back up as high as 49 following the McCaffrey news. These two teams combined for 50 points back in Super Bowl LIV while being led by the same quarterbacks, although a vital offensive weapon for KC, Tyreek Hill, is naturally no longer on the roster.

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers Betting Picks This Week

Concerns about the Chiefs being a much less potent offense without Tyreek Hill have largely proven unfounded through the first six games of the season, as Patrick Mahomes has proven he is unquestionably the one indispensable cog in the offensive machine. Mahomes is averaging 289.3 passing yards per game and owns a 17:4 TD:INT, but he does have a thorny matchup on his hands in this Week 7 interconference clash. The 49ers defense has been elite for the most part, and even last week’s surprising upset came with San Fran missing a slew of key players on that side of the ball.

The good news for the Niners is that Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward both return for this key showdown, which should make a significant impact. San Francisco already comes in allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (168.3) and yards per completion (8.3), and the Niners have also compiled the second-most sacks (23). Mahomes has been protected pretty well (11 sacks in six games), but KC’s offensive line will be facing pressure like it hasn’t seen all season, even versus Buffalo.

While Andy Reid doesn’t pay much mind to his running game unless he’s forced to, it’s also worth noting he’s unlikely to find much success whenever he does try to deploy his ground forces. The Niners are essentially just as difficult to run on as they are to pass against, coming in allowing an AFC-low 87.5 rushing yards per game and 3.1 RB yards per carry. San Fran also ranks No. 1 in both second-level and open-field yards allowed, making chunk plays against them on the ground virtually non-existent.

Meanwhile, the matchup shapes a bit more palatable for the Niners offense, with or without McCaffrey’s services. The Chiefs have allowed 266 passing yards per game, including 304.7 per contest in the last three. KC is also giving up an elevated 10.8 yards per completion in that latter span, while Jimmy Garoppolo has a fully healthy pass-catching corps at his disposal and is coming off having thrown for a season-high 296 yards against the Falcons.

Jeff Wilson is certainly no slouch, so if McCaffrey sits out altogether or has a very limited role, the Niners running game will still be in fine shape. Wilson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and had gained at least 74 rushing yards in four consecutive starts before being limited to seven carries in Week 6 due to game script. The Chiefs have been tougher against the run than the pass, but they’re still allowing 4.2 RB yards per carry and hold a No. 23 ranking in second-level yards allowed. KC also is the most generous team in the league in terms of allowing receiving production to RBs, giving up an NFL-high 56 receptions and 390 receiving yards to the position.

The Niners, and their fan base for that matter, are undoubtedly reinvigorated by the McCaffrey acquisition and also hungry to atone for the ugly Week 6 loss. San Fran’s defense should be in much better health and form, and it will help keep matters very close at home, if not lead the Niners to an outright upset.

Chiefs at 49ers Best Bet: 49ers +1.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers prediction

49ers 24, Chiefs 21

As mentioned, the 49ers get some key players on defense back this week, and that should make a significant difference. San Francisco should be able to hit some plays through the air against what has been an inconsistent Chiefs secondary, and KC’s passing attack, while potent, should have similar difficulty establishing series-to-series rhythm as it did for stretches of the Week 6 loss to the Bills.

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