The San Francisco exodus isn’t over, in response to new migration information. Right here’s the place persons are transferring
Emigration to San Francisco in 2020-2021:
US states
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
For years, as many people moved from San Francisco as there. But that changed during the pandemic. Without moving from abroad, over 72,000 more people moved out of the city than since the beginning of 2020, almost eight times more than in the same period 2018-2019.
The Chronicle received exclusive insight into data on California migration patterns from the California Policy Lab, a research group at the University of California. The data, known as the University of California’s Consumer Credit Panel, tracks the movements of approximately 90% of California adults with active credit information on a quarterly basis. It shows the number of Californians who have moved within counties as well as in and out of other states.
The data shows that California had a far higher level of so-called “negative net domestic migration” during the pandemic compared to the previous two years. That said, the number of Californians leaving the state for other parts of the country has increased while the number of people entering the state from the rest of the United States has decreased.
This change doesn’t necessarily reflect a “CalExodus,” the highly acclaimed concept of Californians leaving the state in droves. While moving out has increased during the pandemic, the steep increase in domestic emigration is mainly due to fewer Americans entering California, rather than more Californians leaving the state.
“It’s more about calentrances than calexits,” Natalie Holmes, research fellow at the California Policy Lab and co-author of the report, told The Chronicle.
However, some counties – particularly in the Bay Area – saw a significant increase in moving out while their moving in decreased. And several states welcomed many more ex-Californians than before during the pandemic.
The data are subject to some restrictions. It is noteworthy that the 10% of the people who are missing in the data set tend to be less financially stable and people of color. All quarterly region-to-region moves with fewer than five people are listed as 0 in the data; We used an algorithm to fill in some of the missing values.
It also only includes moves within the US. Immigrants entering California from another country or Californians leaving the state for another country will not be considered.
With these limitations in mind, here are some key takeaways from the data:
People are still leaving San Francisco
San Francisco saw a significant increase in churn during the pandemic. Net immigration to the city was slightly negative before 2020 and began to decline in the first half of the year. They then took a nosedive in the second half of the year and have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The decline in net moves to San Francisco was driven almost equally by moving out and fewer moving in; During the pandemic, immigrants decreased by around 24% compared to the two previous years, while removals increased by 21%.
Net inland migration to San Francisco since 2015
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
Again, it should be noted that the data does not include all moves to and from San Francisco (and the rest of California) as international migration is excluded.
Previously, the Chronicle used data from the U.S. Postal Service to estimate net migration from both California and the Bay Area during the pandemic. These data indicated that the San Francisco “exodus” ended in early 2021. The latest data on the challenges of the Consumer Credit Panel contradict this statement. Data experts consider the credit panel data to be superior to USPS data, as there is no need to make a decision to submit an address change form in order to be counted in the data.
The connection from San Francisco to Montana
Of any state, Montana saw the largest surge in new San Franciscans during the pandemic, followed by Utah. The number of San Franciscans who came to Montana and Utah increased 140% and 86%, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic times. However, numerically, New York, Texas, and Washington received the most ex-San Franciscans during the pandemic.
States where immigration from San Francisco increased the most during the pandemic
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
The most common places of origin for people from other states who moved to San Francisco during the pandemic were also New York, Texas, and Washington, although those states have taken in far more San Franciscans than they have given up.
States where immigration from San Francisco increased the most during the pandemic, according to raw figures
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
Even fewer people are moving to California
As in San Francisco, more people are leaving California than moving there during the pandemic, a trend that accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year. However, according to Evan White, executive director of the California Policy Lab and co-author of the report, California has had net domestic churn for about a decade.
“There has long been a slow decline in network access,” White told The Chronicle. “What appears to have happened in the pandemic was the slope of the line changed.”
California Net Domestic Migration by Quarter
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
This statewide trend is being driven primarily by a decline in arrivals to California, not emigration. Moves to California decreased by about 35% between the prepandemic period we looked at and the pandemic period, while moving out only increased by about 7% over the same period.
Total number of moves to and from California by quarter
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The Bay Area has been hardest hit by pandemic removals
San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara saw the largest increases in net emigration as a percentage of the population during the pandemic. The increase in net statements in San Francisco was by far the largest; 74 more people per 1,000 residents left the district during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic.
California counties with the largest increase in net statements per 1,000 people
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
Net migration for each California county in 2020-2021
Net Migration from San Francisco in 2020-2021:
US states
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
note
Californians don’t just go to Texas
Ex-Californians move disproportionately to some states when they decide to leave the Golden State. In terms of net movements, the most popular destination states for ex-Californians during the pandemic were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Washington.
Favorite state travel destinations for ex-Californians during the pandemic
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
But the states where arrivals from California rose the most were Tennessee, Montana, and Idaho.
States that saw the largest percentage increase in removals from California during the pandemic
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
In addition, far fewer people moved from Colorado, New Jersey, and Vermont to California during the pandemic than in 2018-2019.
However, the most common movements do not change
Not much has changed in the most common moves from region to region in the state. Where they did, they mirrored these other patterns in the Californian and would-be California movements. Almost all of the 20 most popular region-to-region movements went from one large county to another, such as Los Angeles to Orange or San Mateo to Santa Clara.
The most popular county-to-county removals in California
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
Still, some changes stand out. Of the most popular away moves, the pair that saw the biggest increase have been from Los Angeles to Texas; Net moves from LA to the Lone Star State increased 20% from pre-pandemic to pandemic.
The most popular county to state removals in California
Source: University of California Consumer Credit Panel via California Policy Lab
The data refer to the first seven quarters of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021.
