Will the San Francisco Bay Space see any extra rain earlier than the top of November?

Long-term forecasts show mostly dry weather conditions in the San Francisco Bay Area through late November, the National Weather Service said. This news is discouraging in a region facing drought conditions.

“We have fairly dry conditions going into next week,” weather forecaster Matt Mehle said on Friday. “We are monitoring a potential system. One model showed a weak low-pressure system, but it looks like the likelihood of that is very low.”

The Weather Service used a dozen weather models to forecast the weather, and Mehle said only one indicated a low chance of light rain on Tuesday, November 23. After that, the models show no more rain until the beginning of December.

The models agree that Thanksgiving Day will be dry.

The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in its eight- to 14-day precipitation sheet that the Bay Area has a 30% to 40% chance of precipitation through Dec. 2.

Is it possible that there will be no more rain in the Bay Area by the end of November?

“It’s definitely possible,” Mehle said.

The San Francisco Bay Area experienced a wet start to the rainy season, and precipitation totals across the region are still well above normal.

Rainfall totals since October 1 in San Francisco, Oakland, and Santa Rosa are all 400% above average.

“All of these numbers will start to correct course,” Mehle said. “We’ve had so much rain early in the water year and the numbers are unusually high, but all of that is diminishing as the weather gets drier.”